Public-owned Container Corporation of India (CONCOR) shares gained on Monday, May 26, after brokerages and experts rolled out their reviews of the Navratna PSU's earnings show for the quarter ended March of the financial year 2024-2025.
CONCOR reported a 1.6 percent year-on-year decline in net profit for the January-March quarter of FY25, posting Rs 298.5 crore against Rs 303.3 crore a year ago. The drop in PAT was partly due to changes in the depreciation method, which lowered depreciation expenses.
Revenue also dipped 1.6 percent to Rs 2,287.8 crore from Rs 2,325 crore in the same quarter last year. EBITDA fell 10 percent to Rs 526.6 crore, compared to Rs 585.7 crore, resulting in a narrower EBITDA margin of 23 percent, down from 25.2 percent.
Domestic volumes dipped 14 percent YoY mainly due to reduction of low-margin cargo and eastern network congestion.
The company expects 13 percent growth in total volume in FY26, driven by 10 percent/20 percent growth in EXIM/domestic volumes. This would be supported by improved service quality, full first and last-mile connectivity, the commissioning of four new terminals, and the expected launch of the Western Dedicated Freight Corridor (WDFC) up to Jawaharlal Nehru Port by December 2025.
At 9.20 am, shares were quoting Rs 724.55, higher by half a percent on the NSE.
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Should you buy, sell, or hold CONCOR shares?
Nuvama Institutional Equities said CONCOR posted a weak Q4FY25 with volume inching up one percent YoY, while the six year CAGR was two percent
"Concor, despite being the market leader, reported flat EXIM growth over FY19–25, with a sub-par performance across parameters. However, EXIM volumes are likely to improve with road to rail market share shift and is a key monitorable in our opinion," said the brokerage, maintaining its 'hold' call, while reducing its target price to Rs 720 per share.
Motilal Oswal said, "Factoring in lower domestic volumes and delay in the commissioning of JNPT
to WDFC, we have reduced our revenue/EBITDA/PAT estimates for FY26 by ~7 percent/6 percent/5 percent and for FY27 by ~9 percent/9 percent/8 percent." The brokerage reiterated 'buy' with a reduce target price of Rs 850 per share.
HSBC has maintained a 'hold' rating on CONCOR, but reduced its target price to Rs 740 per share. The company’s Q4 performance was weak, with revenue and EBITDA declining by 2 percent and 11 percent, respectively. Despite this, management remains optimistic about growth prospects in both domestic and export markets. However, HSBC noted that the earnings downgrade cycle continues, leading the brokerage to lower its estimates.
On the flip side, Jefferies reiterated a 'buy' call on CONCOR and raised its target price to Rs 825 per share. Jefferies has trimmed its FY26–27 EBITDA estimates by 1–6 percent to factor in the soft Q4. However, the brokerage sees DFC connectivity to JNPT as a major catalyst going forward.
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