Asian Paints is expected to report 21 percent jump in consolidated net profit to Rs 1,166 crore on strong volumes. Top line is expected to grow 10 percent to Rs 8,665 crore, as per the average of estimates of brokerages polled by Moneycontrol.
The company is scheduled to announce its Q4 results during market hours on May 11.
On the operating front, EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) margins are seen expanding over 100 basis point on-year and 75 basis points sequentially to 19.4 percent.
"Raw material prices have continued to soften and gross margins should inch up. Gross margin expansion, along with operating leverage and cost efficiencies to support Ebitda margins," according to Jefferies.
The price of titanium dioxide, a key input for paint companies, has fallen 10 percent year-on-year. The price of crude oil is proportionally related to the cost of paint manufacturing. In the base quarter of Q4 FY22, crude prices were above the $90 per barrel mark.
Analyst expectations on the volume growth vary from 7 percent to 12 percent. Jefferies expects volume growth of 12 percent and a price/mix decline of 2 percent. Meanwhile, Kotak Institutional Equities expects volume growth of 7 percent.
In this context, it is important to watch for management commentary on mix change and demand outlook in rural markets.
"We gather that the March quarter started off on a strong note (on a soft base), but demand moderated towards the end of the quarter (perhaps, on a high base). A steep 15 percent price hike in Q3 last year had led to some shift of sales to Q4 FY22," noted Kotak Institutional Equities.
Another key factor to monitor will be the commentary on home décor, bath and kitchen businesses. The company had witnessed some slowdown in these segments in the quarter gone by.
Investors will also be eyeing the progress on capex plans. The company earlier announced Rs 8,750-crore capex for setting up facilities for Vinyl Acetate Ethylene Emulsion (VAE) and Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) in India, acquiring a nano-technology player and increasing the manufacturing capacity to 22.7 lakh KL.
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