Tata Power Q4 EBITDA likely to rise 25% at Rs 1507 cr

By Priyanka Dalmia, Research Analyst at CNBC-TV18

Private power producer Tata Power is expected to report a consolidated profit after tax of Rs 487 crore for the fourth quarter of FY12, down 26% as compared to Rs 662 crore in a year ago period, according to CNBC-TV18 poll.
Total income is seen going up by 32% to Rs 6,633 crore from Rs 5,016 crore year-on-year.
EBITDA too is likely to go up by 25% year-on-year to Rs 1,507 crore in the quarter ended March 2012.
Operating profit margin is expected to be at 22.73% for January-March quarter of 2012 versus 24.06% in the corresponding quarter of last fiscal and 15.06% in previous quarter.
On quarter-on-quarter basis, power producer is likely to show rise of 85% in profit after tax and 50% in EBITDA. Expectations
YoY growth in top line due to higher power generation capacity and higher coal production
YoY margins expected to come in lower due to higher fuel costs and cost of power purchased
Need to watch for forex impact on the bottom line, though company did adopt the AS-11 method of capitalizing forex losses Key factors to watch for –
Stabilization of Unit I of 800MW of the Mundra UMPP project
Management commentary on the possibility of tariff revisions for power sold out of Mundra UMPP
***Current tariff rate of Rs 2.35/kwh and plant needs Rs 2.93/kwh to breakeven at the PBT level Current capacities and capacity addition plans
Company currently has a total power generation capacity of around 3900MW
Company is in the process of building another 4729MW of additional capacities Also watch the accompanying video...