India saw the driest August since 1901, when the country began keeping weather records, but the monsoon is expected to make a recovery from the first week of September, Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said addressing a media briefing on August 31.
While August saw a deficiency of 35 percent, monthly rainfall for September over the country as a whole is most likely to be normal (91-109 percent of the Long Period Average, with the situation likely to improve comparatively from August, as per IMD. It expects the country to see about 167.9mm of rainfall in September.
However, Mohapatra said even if the rainfall in September was to remain on the higher side, the June-September seasonal rainfall average is expected to be below normal for the season.
A dry August, hit by strengthening El Nino conditions, has led to a worrying agricultural trend.
Normal rainfall is critical for India's agricultural landscape, with 52 percent of the net cultivated area relying on it. Rainfed agriculture contributes approximately 40 percent of the country's total food production, making it a vital contributor to India's food security and economic stability.
Most days of August saw below-normal rainfall activity with the country as a whole registering a fall of 10 percent between June 1 and August 31 this year with a break period of 20 days. The highest number of break days was last seen in 2005 and 1979 with 16 break days each. Break days refer to the number of days which did not see any rainfall.
The days of occurrence of heavy rainfall (115.6 to 204.5mm) too saw a significant fall in 2023 in August from 552 incidences last year to 401 incidences this year.
The country as a whole had only 161.7 mm of rainfall this month. Never has the country received less than 190 mm of rainfall in August, as per the IMD.
States like Gujarat and Kerala have had a deficit of nearly 90 percent for the month so far. Karnataka, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh also have more than 50 percent deficiency. Tamil Nadu, which receives a bulk of its rainfall during the winter months, has a shortfall of about 23 percent.
Kharif sowing
Kharif sowing has already been affected this year with pulses leading the drop. As per the latest data, while overall kharif sowing barely inched up, by 3.6 percent from last year to touch 105.4 million hectares (mh) led by paddy sowing, the fall in pulses sowing has been significant with a nearly 5 percent drop in tur (arhar or pigeon pea) and urad (black gram) to 4.2 mh and 3.1 mh, respectively.
A lack of rain has also worsened the decline in water levels of major reservoirs, which has led to an overall shortfall of 21 percent against the previous year’s levels.
The IMD has again predicted the continued spatial distribution of rain in the country.
September to see above-normal temperature
As per the IMD, September is likely to see above-normal maximum temperatures in most parts of the country, except for some areas in south peninsular India and some pockets of west-central India. Above-normal minimum temperatures will also be witnessed in most parts of the country, except for some areas in extreme north India.
India has seen a turnaround in monsoon rains month after month this year, shifting from a nine percent deficit in June to 13 percent excess rainfall in July and further to a 35 deficiency in August.
El Nino conditions likely to intensify
August accounts for around 30 percent of the precipitation during the monsoon season. However, as El Nino conditions intensified, the year saw the driest August ever.
“All India rainfall in August was lowest since 1901. The month was one of the worst cases in the history of rainfall in India. Strengthening El Nino was a big factor contributing to this,” Mohapatra told reporters.
“It is still a weak El Nino, however, temperature is rapidly increasing over the Pacific and will grow stronger,” he added.
El Nino refers to the warming of waters in the Pacific Ocean near South America and is generally associated with weakening monsoon winds and dry weather in India.
The latest models have indicated that the El Nino conditions are likely to intensify further and continue up to early next year and during the winter months of 2023-24, according to the IMD. At present, borderline positive IOD conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean and the latest forecasts indicate that the positive IOD conditions are likely to strengthen during the upcoming months.
IOD refers to the Indian Ocean Dipole, which measures the difference in sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern parts of the Indian Ocean. When IOD is positive, there is rain over India.
The IMD had earlier warned that El Nino might affect the second half of the southwest monsoon.
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