MCX Crude oil futures surged to a fresh high for the March series at Rs 4,566 per barrel on February 23. Crude oil prices rebounded on expectations of the slow return of US crude production after last week’s production freeze in Texas.
Crude oil prices were also supported by rapidly tightening global supply and vaccine-led recovery this summer. The oil stored at sea dropped to an 11-month low last week, in another sign of dwindling supplies.
Saudi Arabia and Russia are heading toward an OPEC+ meeting next week with a differing opinion on whether to increase supply to the market in April.
“NYMEX crude trades about 1.5 percent higher near $62.6 per barrel amid slow recovery in US output, differences between Saudi Arabia and Russia over production policy, continuing US-Iran tensions, hopes of additional US stimulus, upbeat economic data and weakness in the US dollar. However, weighing on price is choppiness in the US equity market and the resurgence of coronavirus cases in some places like India. Crude oil has bounced back sharply after a brief correction and may remain firm ahead of the inventory report which will give clarity on demand-supply impact from a recent cold snap in the US," said Ravindra Rao, VP- Head Commodity Research at Kotak Securities.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 0.68 percent to $62.12 per barrel, while Brent crude, the London-based international benchmark, rose 0.68 percent to $64.80 per barrel.
MCX iCOMDEX Crude Oil Index was up 89.38 points, or 1.78 percent, at 5,107.24 at 15:43.
In the futures market, crude oil for March delivery touched an intraday high of Rs 4,566 and an intraday low of Rs 4,460 per barrel on the MCX. So far in the current series, black gold has touched a low of Rs 3,800 and a high of Rs 4,566.
Crude oil delivery for March soared by Rs 80, or 1.80 percent, to Rs 4,515 per barrel at 15:44 hours IST with a business turnover of 5,207 lots.
Crude oil delivery for April climbed Rs 79, or 1.78 percent, to Rs 4,523 per barrel with a business volume of 63 lots.
The value of March and April’s contracts traded so far is Rs 1,012.00 crore and Rs 4.32 crore, respectively.
Trading strategy
Tapan Patel- Senior Analyst (Commodities), HDFC Securities
Crude oil prices rose to 13-month high on expectations of a slower restart of oil output form cold weather impacted Texas area. The resumption of refinery operations will bring oil demand back on track.
We expect crude oil prices to trade higher with support at $61 and resistance at $64. MCX Crude oil March has support at Rs 4,490, resistance at Rs 4,580.
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