May WPI inflation seen at 4.8%: CNBC-TV18 poll

India's wholesale price index numbers (WPI) for the month of May are likely to be around 4.8 percent, according to a CNBC-TV18 poll. This data (expectation) is very close to April’s WPI, recorded at 4.89.

CNBC-TV18’s Latha Venkatesh reports that the data will be on similar lines due to the reduced effect of the base. Until the month of April, the base was very high. So, it was easy to show big falls. Also read: CPI inflation slows to 9.31% in May The food prices will rise even seasonally in May. The consumer price index (CPI) numbers indicated a sharp jump in month-on-month food prices. These should reflect in the WPI too. Cereals recorded a 16.29 percent rise in May.  So, the food index may go up too. Fuel index has been going up with the administered price of diesel rising. The hike in diesel prices by 50 paise will have to be worked in but that will be compensated by a fall in petrol and aviation turbine fuel (ATF) prices. The manufacture product index or the core index would be to watch out for. It has been falling very sharply since December. Analysts expect this number to go down even more than the previous moth. The core index for the April inflation was at 2.9 percent. This time it may range between 2.3-2.6 percent. This will have a downward pressure on the inflation number. The data’s impact on the market could be limited. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been focused on the rupee decline. Other central banks like Indonesia and Turkey have tightened their monetary policies. It is difficult to expect the RBI to move under such circumstances. The Governor indicated in the previous policy that there was little room for monetary action. With the added pressure on the rupee, he will pass this one. There could be some kneejerk reactions in the market if the number is way out of expectations. But largely it won't move markets much.