Just days ahead of the Presidential election, Americans are feeling more confident of about their economic prospects and gains in the US stock market, the latest consumer confidence report by The Conference Board shows. The report, released on October 29, says that consumer confidence is at the strongest since March 2021, and for the first time since July last year, there is a 'cautious optimism' about future job prospects.
“October’s increase in confidence was broad-based across all age groups and most income groups. In terms of age, confidence rose sharpest for consumers aged 35 to 54. On a six-month moving average basis, householders aged under 35 and those earning over $100K remained the most confident,” the report cited Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board.
The proportion of consumers anticipating a recession over the next 12 months too has dropped to its lowest since 2022, as also the percentage of consumers believing the economy was already in recession. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index is an economic indicator calculated by The Conference Board, a non-governmental organization.
Consumers were also more upbeat about the US stock market, with 51.4% expecting prices to rise over the next year, and only 23.6% expecting stocks to decline. This is the most optimistic reading on the stock market prospects since 1987.
The share of consumers expecting higher interest rates over the next one year has also risent to 47.5%, after falling for four months in a row, the report showed.
The index also captured cautious optimism about future job availability for the first time since July 2023. "Compared to last month, consumers were substantially more optimistic about future business conditions and remained positive about future income," Dana Peterson said.
Investors will be tracking the first estimate of the US third-quarter GDP, October employment report, and the September inflation this week, before entering the election week. The US Fed’s policy meeting is scheduled two days after the US election.
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