Since 1993, Rajasthan has alternated between two main parties, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress, every five years. Veteran Congress leader Ashok Gehlot has served as the desert state’s chief minister three times, while Vasundhara Raje from the BJP has held the position twice during this period.
Most of the exit polls on November 30 predicted a close contest for the 200-member Assembly. However, a decisive victory in favour of the saffron party will ease things for the party’s top leadership.
Now, all eyes are on who will become the chief minister, especially since the BJP’s central leadership has fielded many Lok Sabha MPs. Wresting power from the Congress is expected to be a significant boost for the party, especially after recent losses in Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh.
The results, coming months ahead of the 2024 general elections, are seen as semi-final polls. Rajasthan sends 25 seats to the Lok Sabha, and in the 2019 general elections, the BJP won 24 seats, with the remaining one going to its ally.
A win here would strengthen the BJP’s presence in the north of Vindhyas, in contrast to its almost non-existent presence in the south after the loss in Karnataka earlier this year.
If the BJP comes to power, it will also solidify its standing in the Hindi heartland, given that it already holds power in Uttar Pradesh, the largest state.
For the Congress, a loss would not only be a setback for the party but also for Ashok Gehlot. The 76-year-old refused the position of Congress president in 2022. So, a victory would bolster not only his position in Rajasthan but also within the party.
A loss for Congress would imply that welfare schemes have not yielded dividends. Additionally, it could be a setback for Sachin Pilot and his camp, as they have been attempting to carve a space in the state’s leadership.
However, if Congress wins, it would be the most surprising among the five recently polled states. It would mark the first time in 25 years that the party has secured consecutive terms in the state. However, questions will linger regarding Sachin Pilot’s prospects.
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