One of the more memorable moments in the run-up to the Mizoram elections was Rahul Gandhi’s rally in Aizawl. For at least two days, he overtook all social media platforms in Mizoram. From Insta reels to innumerable selfies, Rahul Gandhi was everywhere.
For many, this was a sign that Congress, which, along with MNF, was one of the only two parties to govern the state since its inception, might return to power. If anti-incumbency was a factor, maybe Congress too could benefit from it.
North-East Dumps Congress
The Mizoram verdict has shown that Congress’s chances of coming back to power in Mizoram, or any state in the North-East, for that matter, will remain a pipedream for now.
Earlier this year, Nagaland, Meghalaya and Tripura went to elections: the party drew a blank in Nagaland, won five seats in Meghalaya, and three in Tripura. Three states, 180 seats for grabs and Congress ended with 8. Now, mind you: in Tripura, a tally of three was better than the 2018 tally, when it won zero. But in the run-up to the Tripura elections, you could have very well, and wrongly, believed that Congress was in contention based on the party leadership’s confidence.
And yet, it ended with three seats.
In 2022, Manipur witnessed elections, and such was the incompetence of the Congress that BJP, under the leadership of N Biren Singh, had an easy ride. In Nagaland, the fact that they won zero means that even discussing their campaign would be a waste of time and words.
And now, Mizoram. Rahul Gandhi came. He charmed the locals, the locals charmed him, innumerable selfies were taken and come December 4, 2023, even his party’s CM candidate, Lalsawta, came third in his constituency Aizawl East 3.
But despite such a strong anti-BJP wave on account of Manipur violence, the saffron party still won more than the Congress. In the past two years, we have seen elections in five North-East states: Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland, Meghalaya and Tripura. In Manipur and Meghalaya, Congress has five seats each; in Tripura, three, and Mizoram, one. And zero in Nagaland.
Mizoram has only strengthened an idea that now has a strong acceptance in the North-East: the locals would happily vote for any party except Congress. This means that in states like Nagaland, Meghalaya and now Mizoram, voters will overwhelmingly side with local parties like NDPP, NPP and the ZPM respectively.
The BJP Rise
In Assam and Tripura, voters overwhelmingly sided with BJP, a national party and currently in power at the Centre. Assam and Tripura being Hindu-majority states also helped BJP, especially in Assam where BJP, at least among its supporters, is seen as the only party that can stop illegal immigration to the state.
As we get ready to welcome 2024, the North-East political map is one that makes for an extremely interesting reading.
Just like in old times, regional parties continue to challenge a national party. Despite trying very hard, the BJP remains a fringe factor based on its seats in Mizoram and Meghalaya, while even having 55 of the 60 MLAs in its support in Manipur has done little to stem the violence in the state. But crucially for Manipur and the BJP, the next elections are in 2027. And if the BJP wins the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, take a guess who will win Manipur in 2027.
Both Assam and Arunachal are at their most stable because of the local leadership: In Himanta Biswa Sarma and Pema Khandu, the party, at least for now, has little to worry about. In Tripura too, despite regular murmurs regarding rivalry among factions, Chief Minister Manik Saha has ushered in a stability that was much needed for the party.
Coalition Of North-East Parties Coming?
The present political landscape of the North-East makes it clear that the locals are tired of “looking up” to the Centre for help. They either want a direct line with the Centre (which Assam, Arunachal, and Tripura get via the BJP government), or they want strong regional voices that fight for them. If South India and West India can have strong political parties with a regional focus, so can the North-East.
Whether it is the NDPP in Nagaland, earlier the MNF and now the ZPM in Mizoram, the NPP in Meghalaya, Manipur and Nagaland, the NPF in Nagaland and Manipur, the AGP and the AJP in Assam, and the SKM and SDF in Sikkim, the region’s indigenous population is crying out loud for parties that represent them at all times, and for all issues. The meeting between Meghalaya CM Conrad Sangma and TIPRA Motha chairman Pradyot Debbarman in Agartala was one such step.
If these two parties can turn this initiative into something larger, it could very well signal a future where the North-East demands what it needs as equals. That can never be a bad thing for the region. And at least for now, it looks very much like the Congress will not be part of that discussion.
Amit Kumar is executive editor of Eastmojo.com, a North-East-based news portal. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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