With less than a week left for voting in Madhya Pradesh, rebels have set heartbeats rising in both BJP and Congress camps. BJP has expelled 35 rebels and Congress 39 leaders for contesting against the official candidates or indulging in anti-party activities in the 2023 polls.
In the 2018 elections, BJP had expelled 53 leaders while Congress 16. With many smaller parties in the fray BSP, SP, AAP, GGP, etc, the rebels are having a field day shifting to these outfits, while some are contesting as Independents.
How Important Is The Rebel Factor?
In 2018, rebels had led to the defeat of Congress in seven and BJP in five seats. The Congress could not reach a simple majority mark of 116, falling short by two, and the rebels can be blamed for this.
In Jhabua, Congress rebel candidate Jevier Meda bagged 35,943 votes while the official candidate Vikrant Bhuriya lost by 10,437 votes. In Pandhana, Congress rebel candidate Rupali Bare bagged 25,456 votes while the official candidate Chhaya More lost by 23,750 votes.
In Ujjain South, Congress rebel Jay Singh Darbar bagged 19,560 votes while the official candidate Raju Bhaiyya lost by 18,960 votes. In Pathariya, BJP rebel Ramkrishna Kusmariya bagged 8,755 votes while the official candidate Lakhan Patel lost by just 2,205 votes. He spoiled the party's chances in another seat Damoh bagging 1,133 votes where BJP lost by just 798 votes.
In a state where 46 seats were decided on a victory margin of less than 5,000 votes in 2018, rebels could spoil the prospects of both parties in 2023. BJP had won 24 and Congress 20 of these closely contested seats in 2018.
Why So Many Rebels?
The rebel factor is more prominent in a Vidhan Sabha election compared to Lok Sabha polls. The resources required to contest a Vidhan Sabha election is lesser as an average Lok Sabha seat has 6-8 Vidhan Sabha segments.
An MLA denied a ticket is generally believed to have conjured up enough resources to contest a Vidhan Sabha poll again, without party support.
In a Vidhan Sabha election, the propensity of acceptance of Independents by the public is also higher. For example, Independents account for about 2.3 percent of all legislative assemblies put together while only four could make it to the Lok Sabha in 209 (0.7 percent).
With a high chance of getting elected, lower funds requirement (EC ceiling on poll expenditure is Rs 40 lakh (vidhan sabha) versus Rs 95 lakh (lok sabha), and the influence commanded by local candidates in state elections, it becomes very difficult even for a self-proclaimed disciplined party like the BJP to rein in rebels.
High aspirations of leaders, the party inducting many leaders from outside (44 percent MLAs who switched parties joined BJP as per a ADR report), which leads to dilution of ideology, are some of the reasons why BJP is no different when it comes to rebels.
Generally, the incumbent party normally sees a high number of rebels if tickets are denied to many sitting MLAs. BJP has denied tickets to 33 sitting MLAs. If the opposition has a good chance to win, like the Congress in MP as per surveys, then in that case the opposition also sees many rebellions, as dejected candidates want to extract revenge and show their worth while fancying their chances.
In some cases rebels are financed by the rival party and put up as dummy candidates to damage the official candidate.
Key Rebels Of INC-BJP
The list of leaders expelled by the BJP includes Rustam Singh, former MLA from Morena, K.K. Shrivastava, former MLA from Tikamgarh, Harshvardhan Chouhan, son of former state BJP president Nandkumar Chouhan, Kedarnath Shukla, sitting MLA from Sidhi, among others.
Some of the prominent names against whom the action has been taken by the Congress include former MP Premchand Guddu, former MLA Antar Singh Darbar, former MLA Yadvendra Singh, state party spokesman Ajay Singh Yadav and Nasir Islam.
In seats where rebels are of the same caste as the official candidate, the damage is more. For example, Congress rebels and official candidates are of the same caste in Khargapur, Bhopal Uttar, Mungaoli and Jatara. BJP rebels and official candidates are of the same caste in Morena, Sidhi, Chauchada and Ater.
Rebel Factor Matters More In Small States?
In small states like Himachal Pradesh since the number of voters per seat is lesser compared to big states (80,000 vs 2.5 lakhs), and victory margins lower (14 seats with less than 3 percentage point margin out of 68 seats), the rebels play a bigger role. In 2022 state elections, on 12 seats rebels spoiled the chances of BJP (eight) and Congress (four) candidates.
To sum up, in Madhya Pradesh, where in 30 seats the victory margin was less than 3,000, (BJP 15 and Congress 14) in 2018 and opinion polls suggesting a photo finish, the rebels are going to give nightmares to BJP and Congress leadership and rebel management will be one of the main jobs of senior leadership. We will have to wait and see the damage they cause.
Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba. Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.
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