Nobody seems to have even the slightest inkling about which way voters may swing during the ensuing Karnataka assembly elections, with even pollsters sending out confusing and contradictory signals. The predictions vary from a clean sweep to the Congress or Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to a hung assembly. On the ground, however, there is no wave in favour of any particular party.
In fact, over the past three decades, a perceptible wave was witnessed only during three elections: In 1994 when Janata Dal led by HD Deve Gowda came to power and in 1999 and 2013 when the Congress formed the government under the leadership of SM Krishna and Siddaramaiah respectively. Elections in 2004, 2008 and 2018 threw up a fractured mandate.
Congress Goes Local, BJP National
This election season, the Congress has been rather upbeat, to the point of overconfidence, and claims there is a strong wave in its favour. The Congress has largely bet its chips on former Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) president DK Shivakumar, with national leaders like Rahul Gandhi making only a guest appearance.
The BJP is mainly banking on the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi who has made frequent visits to the state. Modi is the mascot of the BJP, and not Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai or his predecessor, Lingayat strongman BS Yediyurappa.
While until now, the Congress appeared to enjoy favourable tailwinds, it remains to be seen if this will shift to BJP after PM Modi’s public meetings and road shows. In 2018, however, the “Modi magic” did not help BJP win a simple majority and the party could form the government only after poaching MLAs from JD(S) and Congress.
Region-Specific Battles
JD(S) supremo HD Kumaraswamy has been repeatedly claiming that his party will form the government by winning 123 seats, though he has not revealed on what basis he has arrived at this figure. The support of JD(S) will be crucial in the case of a hung assembly. The party had aligned with the Congress twice and once with the BJP in the past.
Karnataka has 224 seats and a party needs to cross the halfway mark, that is, 112 to form the government, with the performance in North Karnataka and Old Mysore region being crucial.
While the BJP is sitting pretty in North Karnataka, the exit of senior leaders like Jagadish Shettar and Laxman Savadi who joined the Congress after being denied tickets could have an impact on the party’s prospects. This time, the BJP has left no stone unturned in the Old Mysore region which is its weak point, having got Modi, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and Union Home Minister Amit Shah to campaign in the area. Actress Sumalatha Ambarish who won the Lok Sabha elections from Mandya as an independent candidate has also thrown her weight behind BJP.
Waveless, Issueless, So Manifestos Matter
Besides being “waveless”, this election is also “issueless” and there is no single prominent narrative that can make or break the fortune of a party. While Congress had made corruption in the BJP government its major poll plank, it has also released five promises which it calls guarantees: 10 kg free rice for poor families, 200 units of free electricity, Rs 2,000 monthly allowance for families led by women, monthly doles for unemployed graduates and diploma holders, and free public transport for working women.
The BJP has listed six promises in its manifesto pertaining to food security, social welfare, education, health, development and income. The manifesto also promises to implement the Uniform Civil Code and National Register of Citizens.
The JD(S) manifesto has promised quality education at gram panchayat level, medical assistance up to Rs 40 lakh to families, waiving off loans of women and self-help groups, financial assistance to farmers and better healthcare facilities.
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has released a manifesto with “Delhi-model” promises. They include free power, mohalla clinics, generating new jobs, improving government schools, unemployment dole and 33 percent reservation for women in government jobs.
Normally, astrologers have a field day during election season, though it is a different issue that most of them are usually off the mark, but this time they have taken the back seat. With the voter holding his cards close to his chest, nobody wants to stick their neck out. The safest bet would be to wait for May 13, the day of counting.
Gautham Machaiah is a senior journalist and political commentator based in Bengaluru. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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