Chhattisgarh Elections 2023: Religious conversions trigger bitter intra-tribal divide

Bastar, the heartland of tribal culture in Chhattisgarh, holds 11 of the 29 reserved ST seats. In the last election, Congress secured a notable victory in 10 out of 11 seats in Bastar. After the murder of Dantewada BJP MLA Bhima Mandavi, Congress won the subsequent by-election. This had brought the Congress tally in Bastar division to 11 out of 11.

Narayanpur in Bastar division is the epicentre of religious conversion issues, which may spill over into surrounding seats. In Narayanpur district, there are instances where the tribal people who have not converted have attacked churches. The Superintendent of Police of Narayanpur district even suffered a head injury in one incident. Tribals are not even allowing burial opportunities to those who converted.

The conflict has become so intense between the two groups that there was an incident where a buried dead body was taken out of the grave as a part of protest by non-converting tribals. Tribal people who have not converted into Christianity in this region are leaning towards the BJP. Those tribals who have converted to Christianity, are finding themselves in disarray, and aren’t happy with the Congress government.

BJP had reached out to the tribal population who did not convert and is speaking up for them. Congress, on the other hand, has not even addressed the issue. The role of pastors could become crucial for the upcoming elections, as they could influence voting decisions by Christian tribals.

The Kondagaon district, also heavily affected by religious conversions, has witnessed the in-migration of tribals who have converted to Christianity and were ousted from Narayanpur as a result of conflict that arose there. The government's inaction during this crisis has led to negative perceptions.

In Bastar district, the religious conversion issue continues to simmer in the Chitrakote assembly with numerous cases being reported.

In contrast, in North Bastar, where tribal farmers have benefited from the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for paddy, the issue of paddy procurement is expected to influence voting patterns significantly. Unlike some other regions, the impact of religious conversion is less pronounced here.

Bastar’s Protest Movements, Maoists, Tribal Concerns

In Southern Bastar, marked by movements against the government over the past five years, grievances range from mining activities to security forces’ camps and bridge construction. Mass movements have taken root on both sides of the Indravati River, with villagers feeling that such developments facilitate security forces in accessing tribal areas and establishing their camps.

Tribals believe that such camps give security forces unchecked access to the area, which in turn leads to their harassment by the forces. This belief is widespread among tribal populations and it is not influenced by Maoists.

The "Silger Andolan," a movement that’s more than two years old now, began after the tragic deaths of three tribal youths during protests against security forces. Now a similar movement is going on in Dantewada against mining activities.

The Maoist influence may sway four seats – Bijapur, Narayanpur, Dantewada, and Konta. The Maoists staunchly oppose the BJP but are not supportive of Congress either. They are likely to influence tribals to vote for CPI or the newly formed “Sarva Adiwasi Samaj” led by Arvind Netam.

Netam enjoys a favourable reputation among the educated tribal population because of his rich experience in politics. Netam had even served as Minister of State in Indira Gandhi’s and PV Narasimha Rao’s governments. Netam had rejoined the Congress again in 2018 before elections.

For the CPI, Manish Kunjam poses a strong challenge to Congress's Kawasi Lakhma in this election. The CPI will contest in Bijapur, Dantewada, and Konta assembly seats.

Surguja Division And The Plains

Moving to Surguja Division, where nine reserved ST seats are at stake, the Hasdeo Forest issue and ongoing mining activities loom large. The Chhattisgarh government has identified significant coal reserves in the Hasdeo Arand forest area, and there have been plans to open up the forest for coal mining operations and other industrial activities.

This has resulted in extensive deforestation, impacting the Surguja-Raigarh Belt. Although there is disenchantment with Congress in the region, the influence of TS Singhdeo is expected to garner support for the party.

In the plains, the remaining nine reserved ST seats are likely to see support for Congress due to historically high minimum support prices for paddy under the Rajiv Gandhi Nyay Yojna, providing much-needed financial relief to farmers. The farmers in the state are set to get Rs 2,640 per quintal as MSP for paddy which includes Rs 100 as input subsidy, with the Centre’s Rs 2,040 per quintal MSP paling in comparison.

The Chhattisgarh elections of 2003, 2008 and 2013 were close affairs. It was only in 2018 that Chhattisgarh saw a wave election. But 2018 was an exception, as it was the outcome of a three-term anti-incumbency against BJP which was building up over time. This time different regions of the state will vote differently.

With 29 seats reserved for ST, the tribal population would play a crucial role in deciding which party rules the state, especially in the event of a waveless election.

Harsh Dubey is a political commentator based in Raipur. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of the publication.