Lights, camera, rebound: PVR Inox scripts comeback in Q1 FY26 as Bollywood and Hollywood deliver hits

After a soft April, box office collections surged in May to Rs 1,140 crore. Combined collections for April and May alone stood at Rs 2,000 crore, while June added further strength with the release of Housefull 5, Mission Impossible, Bhool Chuk Maaf, and Final Destination.

"June’s box office collections will comfortably surpass the Rs 1000 crore mark. Newly released movies such as F1, Sitaare Zameen Par and Kuberaa are performing well in theatres. The full benefit of these strong releases will be realised in Q2. Expect growth in box office collections sequentially," Kumar added.

He noted that the box office collection was greater than Rs 3,000 crore in the quarter. "May  and June were strong months with Bollywood and Hollywood  releases."

Karan Taurani, senior vice-president, Elara Capital, expects net Hindi box office collection at Rs 900 crore, up 31 percent YoY (year-on-year), led by Sikandar, Raid 2, Housefull 5 in Q1.

Nitin Menon, NV Capital, expects Q1 to be a reasonably good quarter. "There were a good number of movies which have done very well like Raid 2 , Sitare Zameer Par, Jaat, Housefull 5, Kesari 2, as well as regional movies like Malayalam-language films such as Thuduram, Tamil movie Good bad Ugly, Telugu movie Hit- the third case, as well as Hollywood movies like Mission Impossible."

Back to theatres

For the movie exhibition industry, Q1 FY26 is set to see some revival in footfalls YoY as well as QoQ (quarter-on-quarter), said Vaibhav Muley, lead analyst, Yes Securities.

Kumar noted that with box office collections dominated by Bollywood and Hollywood movies in Q1 where PVR-Inox has higher market share, he expects the multiplex chain to report increased occupancy of 22.5 percent, up from 20.3 percent in Q1 FY25 and 20.5 percent in Q4 FY25.

Muley expects 11-12 percent growth in footfalls with total admits at 3.4 crore for Q1, up from 3 crore in Q1 FY25 and 3.1 crore in the March quarter of FY25. "An increase in footfalls is expected to be moderate due to lower market share in the southern market and mass movies."

He also pointed out that footfalls remain below the levels attained in Q3 FY25 and Q3/Q2FY24, when footfalls were around 3.7 crore, which is necessary to achieve profitability. "Further revival in footfalls is hinged on the improved pipeline for the coming quarters."

A decline in footfalls in the post-COVID period has been a concern, and its impact can be seen in the overall collections, Menon said. "We haven’t seen a tentpole movie in this quarter (Q1 FY26) crossing the Rs 250 crore mark. When there is a mega blockbuster crossing the Rs 300 crore mark, there is a huge spike in footfalls, but that was not seen in this quarter. This quarter saw movies in the range of Rs 100 - 200 crore and some reasonably good movies in the Rs 50-100 crore mark.

Bounce back

The company is expected to narrow its losses to Rs 34.1 crore in Q1 as against a loss of Rs 125 crore in Q4 FY25 and Rs 178.7 crore in Q1 FY25.

"For Q1 FY26, we expect PVR Inox to report revenue growth of 16 percent YoY, with ticket sales growth of over 18 percent YoY and F&B growth of 15 percent YoY. This is expected to result in pre-IndAS EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortisation) Rs 94.6 crore," Muley said.

Revenue from sale of movie tickets is estimated to be at Rs 702.3 crore in Q1 as against Rs 644.7 crore in Q4 FY25 and Rs 593.5 crore in Q1 FY25. Revenue from sale of F&B (food and beverage) Rs is estimated to be at Rs 463.9 crore as against Rs 381.1 crore in Q4 FY25 and Rs 401.8 crore in Q1 FY25.

He expects the multiplex chain to report revenues of Rs 1,421.6 crore in Q1 versus Rs 1,249.8 crore in Q4 and Rs 1,190.7 crore in Q1 FY25.

"PBT (Profit Before Tax), however, is expected to remain negative on account of high depreciation and finance costs. We expect PBT to turn positive as occupancy crosses 25 percent, implying footfalls of 36-37 million in a quarter."

Muley added that profitability is expected to improve in future, led by the adoption of a capital-light growth strategy. "As of Q4 FY25, PVR Inox has signed 101 screens over 23 cinemas, out of which 46 screens are via management contracts (FOCO/ Franchise Owned, Company Operated Model) and 55 screens are part of the asset-light model (40-80 percent capex {capital expenditure} is by developer). These screens are expected to become operational over the next 12-24 months. For management contracts, the company will receive fees of 8-10 percent of revenues."

Margins for the Asset light model will be slightly lower due to a higher revenue share allocated to developers, he added. "Capex burden will be significantly lower. For FY26, the company targets to open around 110 new screens out of which over 50 percent screens will be through capital-light models. FOCO model is expected to contribute 30 percent of screen additions in FY26."

While we have seen an improved performance despite the IPL (Indian Premier League) quarter, the impact of restructuring costs may weigh on the overall bottom line, said Abhishek Jain, Head of Research, Arihant Capital Markets.

PVR-Inox’s asset-light approach will include 14 out of 20 screens in Q1 in the FOCO/asset-light model, Kumar said.

Higher spends

He added that the company's ATP (Average Ticket Price) and SPH (Spend Per Head) could be up 6 percent and 7 percent, respectively, driving overall revenue growth of 20 percent.

Higher footfalls are expected to translate into better ATP and SPH YoY for Q1, Muley noted. "We expect ATP and SPH to register growth of 8-9 percent YoY on account of higher footfalls and higher share of Hollywood movies."

Gross ATP is expected to be Rs 254 in Q1 versus Rs 258 in Q4 FY25 and Rs 235 in Q1 FY25. Gross SPH is estimated to increase to Rs 145 from Rs 125 in Q4 FY25 and Rs 134 in Q1 FY25.

Lights, camera, comeback

"We expect box office revenues for PVR Inox to remain steady this quarter with a better line-up in Q2, including big Bollywood titles like Dhurandhar, which should aid momentum ahead," Jain said.

He anticipates a slight improvement in occupancies and footfalls for PVR Inox as well as the broader multiplex industry, supported by the new movie pipeline and a gradual return of audiences, though some near-term costs from restructuring could still be visible.

"A robust content pipeline across Bollywood, Hollywood and regional cinemas is expected to result in strong momentum in H2 FY26," Muley said.

The pipeline for upcoming quarters remains strong. On the Bollywood front, the pipeline includes key movies such as Metro In Dino, Maalik, War 2, Son of Sardar 2, Baaghi 4, Jolly LLB 3, Border 2, Love and War, among others. On the Hollywood front, key releases include Jurassic World, Avatar and The Smurfs.