For the Congress, which has been reduced to holding only the Rae Bareli seat in Uttar Pradesh after losing its traditional stronghold Amethi in the last Lok Sabha elections, the upcoming polls are crucial for its survival in the state. In a last-minute decision, Congress has fielded Rahul Gandhi from Rae Bareli, a move political experts believe will influence the outcome in Amethi and 16 other seats in the state.
Rahul Gandhi will be up against BJP's Dinesh Pratap Singh, a minister in Yogi Adityanath government. Singh had contested the 2019 election too against Sonia Gandhi but lost by the margin of over 1 lakh votes.
Congress has attempted to evoke emotions, with Rahul Gandhi sharing a video emphasising the deep-rooted connection his family shares with Amethi and Rae Bareli. In the six-minute clip, Rahul Gandhi expressed, “Our family has shared a bond of over a century with Amethi and Rae Bareli. The ties with Rae Bareli and Amethi hold a unique significance, akin to that of family, friendship, and affection. Just as I cherish my relationship with my mother and sister, I hold a similar bond with Rae Bareli. The local cuisine, particularly the 'Arhar ki Dal,' holds a special place in my heart, unmatched by any other.”
In politics emotion works but it is not a sure shot guarantee. Congress understands the significance of the Rae Bareli result. This is likely why Priyanka Gandhi Vadra has taken charge of the campaign to counter the BJP. Additionally, former Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel has been appointed to bolster the Congress's efforts in Rae Bareli.
Meanwhile, the BJP is also leaving no stone unturned, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Amit Shah, Rajnath Singh, and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath set to hold rallies in the area. Rae Bareli has long been a Gandhi family bastion, with Congress winning every election since independence except in 1977, 1996, and 1998.
In 1977, Raj Narain defeated Indira Gandhi, when she was Prime Minister, in a widely discussed election. The BJP also secured victories during the Ram Mandir movement in 1996 and 1998, with Ashok Singh as the candidate. The Gandhi family’s continuous representation and local development efforts, such as establishing factories and improving infrastructure, have maintained their stronghold.
In 1999, Satish Sharma won election from here after defection of sitting MP Ashok Singh to Congress. This time, the scenario is reversed, with Dinesh Singh, a former Congress member, now contesting for the BJP.
Ravindra Sharma, a local journalist, emphasises the Gandhi family's deep connection to Rae Bareli. However, he says, the significant number of votes BJP's Dinesh Pratap Singh received in the last election—more than any previous candidate against the Gandhi family—indicates a tougher battle this time.
The BJP is touting its development work, including AIIMS OPD services, increased rail coach production, and extensive road and highway networks, to counter opposition claims of neglect. Ram Mandir is also an issue which reverberates in the local populace.
The Samajwadi Party (SP) has not fielded a candidate from Rae Bareli since 2009, instead forming an alliance with Congress. Many SP members participated in the Congress candidate’s nomination, signaling strong support.
Rae Bareli's five assembly seats include SP representatives from Sareni, Unchahar, Bachhrawan, and Harchandpur, with the Sadar seat held by the BJP. However, Unchahar MLA Manoj Pandey has switched allegiances to the BJP.
The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has historically fielded candidates in Rae Bareli and has nominated Thakur Prasad Yadav for this election. Yadav, previously a candidate from the Sareni assembly constituency, aims to galvanize the BSP cadre and his community.
Internal conflict in BJP
The BJP faces internal challenges in keeping its ranks united. Tensions between BJP MLA Aditi Singh and Dinesh Pratap Singh are public, with both leaders often avoiding joint appearances. Similar issues exist between Unchahar MLA Manoj Pandey and Dinesh Singh. Deputy CM Brajesh Pathak and BJP state president have intervened to reconcile these differences, but the effectiveness of these efforts remains to be seen.
Union Home Minister Amit Shah also tried to broker peace but so far that result seems to be negligent.
As the election approaches, the outcome in Rae Bareli will be a significant indicator of Congress's resilience and the BJP's ability to maintain its dominance amidst internal and external challenges.
Rae Bareli goes to polls on May 20.
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