For months, Prashant Kishor promised to upend Bihar’s old order with his Jan Suraaj movement. Now if exit polls are any indication, his Jan Suraaj Party could face a wipeout in its debut election. News18 Mega Exit Poll, along with other poll agencies, suggests that the JSP might not even open its account in the Bihar Assembly polls.
For a man who has helped craft some of India’s most successful political campaigns, from Narendra Modi’s 2014 wave to Mamata Banerjee’s 2021 victory, such a result would mark a humbling setback in his personal political journey.
With the exit poll surveys projecting NDA’s return to power under Nitish Kumar, Kishor’s much-publicised claim that his party would win “either 10 or 150 seats” seems to be falling flat. News18 Mega Exit Poll has predicted the JSP to draw a blank, so have agencies like Chanakya Strategies, People's Insight and Matrize.
The outcome, if confirmed on November 14, will force the political strategist-turned-politician to rethink both his methods and his message.
The limits of a ‘movement’ without machinery
For the past two years, Kishor has pitched Jan Suraaj not as a political party, but as a people’s movement aimed at transforming Bihar’s governance. He spent months walking across the state, holding dialogues, and promising a new, corruption-free politics that went beyond caste arithmetic.
However, Bihar’s politics has always been about identity and alliances as much as about vision. Kishor’s refusal to engage with the caste reality, and his effort to build an alternative from the ground up, may have limited his reach in a state still deeply shaped by social equations.
Speaking to Moneycontrol, political strategist Amitabh Tiwary believes Kishor will need to rethink his strategy if he wants to remain relevant. “Kishor will have to tweak his approach. He cannot afford to ignore the caste factor, and he also did not target the EBC (Extremely Backward Classes) vote bank effectively,” Tiwary said. “Going forward, he needs to look at filling the void that might be created by JD(U) in the future, with Nitish Kumar ageing and the party lacking other strong faces.”
This insight is crucial. Kishor entered the fray promising a politics of ideas, but Bihar’s political landscape remains deeply structured around social identity, patronage, and organisational muscle -- all three things that Jan Suraaj currently lacks.
The JD(U) question
In many ways, Kishor’s political space is constrained by the same party he once served. As Nitish Kumar’s former strategist and later JD(U) vice president, Kishor knows the party machinery from the inside. But he also knows its vulnerabilities: the leadership vacuum that will emerge when Nitish eventually steps down, and the risk of the JD(U)’s traditional base splintering.
If Nitish’s health or age forces a transition in the coming years, there could be an opening for a centrist, development-oriented outfit. Kishor’s challenge will be to keep Jan Suraaj alive long enough to occupy that space.
For now, though, the JD(U) remains intact, and Kishor’s message has not resonated strongly enough to break through Bihar’s entrenched bipolarity -- the NDA on one side, and the RJD-led alliance on the other.
If Jan Suraaj ends up drawing a blank, Kishor will face a decision point. He can either retreat from active politics and return to his role as a strategist, or double down on building his organisation over the next five years. His statewide padyatra has given him visibility and a core group of local volunteers, but converting that goodwill into votes is a long-term project.
Discover the latest Business News, Sensex, and Nifty updates. Obtain Personal Finance insights, tax queries, and expert opinions on Moneycontrol or download the Moneycontrol App to stay updated!
