Voter turnout in Bihar’s first phase of polling on November 6 is expected to exceed 2020 levels, but for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United), the bigger challenge lies in holding on to its traditional bastions.
A Moneycontrol analysis shows that JD(U) entered this phase with the largest number of stronghold seats — constituencies it has won in three consecutive elections — but its margins of victory have been steadily shrinking.
In 2010, JD(U)’s average winning margin across these strongholds stood at 18.1 percent, which fell to 16.2 percent in 2015 and halved to 7.9 percent by 2020. The narrowing lead underscores growing competition even in areas that were once considered secure for the party.
The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the main opposition, has seen a more uneven trajectory. Across its nine strongholds, the party’s average margin dropped from 17.5 percent in 2015 to 9.9 percent in 2020, although this was still higher than the 6.2 percent in 2010, reflecting a modest recovery from its earlier low.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), meanwhile, has managed to strengthen its position in its 10 stronghold seats, with average margins rising from 8.9 percent in 2015 to 11.3 percent in 2020, suggesting more stable voter consolidation compared to its ally.
Tight races dominate the first phase
The first phase is also set to be one of the most closely fought, featuring many of Bihar’s most marginal constituencies. Of the 78 seats where the victory margin was less than 5 percent in 2020, as many as 43 go to polls in this phase.
Within these, 12 seats were decided by less than 1 percent, and nine of those went to the NDA alliance, comprising JD(U), BJP and Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas).
The data also suggest that close contests often coincided with weaker turnout. For instance, Munger, won by the BJP with a 0.75 percent margin, recorded voter participation that was five percentage points lower than in 2015.
Other razor-thin contests included Hilsa (JD-U, 0.01 percent), Barbigha (JD-U, 0.09 percent), and Matihani (LJP, 0.16 percent) — constituencies where even minor shifts in turnout or local mobilisation could change outcomes.
A defining phase for Nitish Kumar
With JD(U) defending the largest number of long-held seats but on the narrowest margins in years, the first phase could prove crucial in determining Nitish Kumar’s hold on his historical turf.
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