After more than nine exit polls unanimously projected a decisive victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) on Tuesday, two more exit polls, Axis My India and Today's Chanakya predicted a win for the NDA. While Axis My India has projected 131 seats for the NDA, Today's Chanakya has predicted a thumping victory with more than 160 seats.
Axis My India has predicted a victory for the NDA by projecting a seat tally of 131 and 108 for the Mahagathbandhan. Axis My India's prediction shows that the votes are divided in Bihar almost equally between the two chief coalitions when it comes to a geography-wise analysis. While the NDA edges out the competition with 43%, the MGB is slightly behind at 41%. The same pollster has given a range of 121-141 for NDA, 98-118 for the Mahagathbandhan. Today's Chanakya has projected a seat tally of 77 ( +, - 12 ) for the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan.
Additionally, Axis My India predicts 15 seats for the MGB in Seemanchal and only 8 for the NDA, whereas NDA has an edge in Champaran region.
While men are in favour of the MGB, women prefer the NDA. This probably hinges on Nitish Kumar's ban on alcohol in the state, which has found him a strong support base among the women of Bihar, predicts Axis My India. While the NDA is predicted to win the polls and form the government, the RJD has been predicted to come out as the single-largest party.
Today's Chanakya has projected a vote share of +44% for BJP and its allies and +38% for RJD and its allies. The pollster has also projected a vote share of 18% for other parties
Most of the exit poll projections released on Tuesday evening, after the conclusion of the second and final phase of voting for the 2025 Bihar assembly elections, predicted a decisive victory for the National Democratic Alliance, with a range of 130-209 seats. The projections placed the Mahagathbandhan at a distant second position, while Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj party, which many though could emerge as a spoiler, seemed to have made very little impact in Bihar.
Many pollsters, including Matrize, P-Marq, Peoples Pulse, projected a range of 130-209 seats for the NDA in the 243-member Bihar assembly, a figure well past the required majority mark of 122. Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan, comprising the RJD, Congress and Left parties, is predicted to trail with 70-102 seats.
Earlier today, RJD leader and Mahagathbandhan chief ministerial candidate Tejashwi Yadav dismissed the exit poll projections for the Bihar assembly elections, most of which gave a clear edge to the NDA and many pollsters predicted that the Mahagathbandhan would not form the government. He said he neither lives in false optimism nor in misunderstanding.
In the 2020 Bihar elections, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) achieved a landslide victory, winning 125 seats, with the BJP bagging 74 seats, JD(U) 43 seats, and VIP and HAM(S) securing four seats each. The RJD of the Mahagathbandhan, notably, emerged as the largest party by winning 75 seats, despite its alliance losing the assembly polls.
However, most pollsters had projected a win for the Tejashwi Yadav-led Mahagathbandhan, predicting that Nitish Kumar's NDA could fall short of a clear majority in the assembly elections.
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