Deposed Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has been indicted in in absentia by the International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) in Dhaka on charges of crimes against humanity, with a trial date set for August 3. But as the trial looms, New Delhi has found itself under mounting diplomatic pressure from the neighbouring country to extradite its long-time ally, something experts believe India is unlikely to do.
Hasina, along with her former home minister Asaduzzaman Khan and ex-police chief Chowdhury Abdullah Al Mamun, has been charged for her role in suppressing last year’s student-led uprising. According to PTI, Hasina is accused of ordering mass killings, torture, and murder during the seven-week protests, which culminated in her ouster on August 5, 2024. Over 1,000 protesters were killed and nearly 20,000 injured or disabled, as per estimates by the interim government now led by Muhammad Yunus.
Hasina, who fled to India aboard a military aircraft, has since been staying at an undisclosed location. On July 9, Yunus’ government urged India to act with “conscience and moral clarity” and comply with the extradition request.
“For too long, India has refused to comply with Bangladesh’s lawful request for the extradition of Sheikh Hasina,” said Shafiqul Alam, Yunus' press secretary. “Neither regional friendship, strategic considerations, nor political legacy could justify the deliberate murder of civilians.”
What the extradition treaty says
India and Bangladesh signed an extradition treaty in 2013, which was amended in 2016 to simplify the process. The treaty allows the transfer of individuals charged with offences carrying at least one year of imprisonment, without requiring extensive evidence – only a warrant from a competent court.
However, the treaty excludes political offences from its scope, though murder, terrorism, and kidnapping are not considered political and cannot be shielded by that clause. Even so, exceptions remain.
Under the treaty, India can refuse extradition if the offence is not considered a crime under Indian law (dual criminality); the request is not made in good faith or for justice; the charges are politically motivated; or the accused would not receive a fair trial.
India may invoke political motivation clause
Despite the severity of charges, several experts believe New Delhi may invoke the clause on political motivation or lack of good faith to reject Bangladesh’s demand.
“Bangladesh needs to present solid evidence that Hasina is guilty of the crimes they are accusing her of, as extradition is essentially a judicial process,” said Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty, former Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh, in an interview with South China Morning Post.
He added that the treaty requires fairness and safety to be ensured, and India must be cautious given the fragile political situation in Bangladesh.
Concerns over due process
The Diplomat has reported that India could reject the request by citing that the charges “were not made in good faith” or that Hasina is being targeted for political reasons. The Yunus administration came to power after a military-backed transition, and many of its actions, including the ban on the Awami League, have raised questions about democratic legitimacy.
“Is she a criminal? That’s the first question that has to be addressed,” said Deepak Vohra, former Indian envoy to Poland, speaking to CNBC-TV18. “Simply because the Bangladesh government says she’s a terrible person, give her back to us, we won’t.”
He noted that Hasina hasn't been accused of direct financial crimes, corruption, or even proven to have ordered killings personally. “There has to be very hard evidence,” he added.
Hasina still seen as India’s strategic ally
India shares deep-rooted ties with Hasina, who was a reliable partner on counterterrorism, cross-border security, and regional cooperation during her 15-year tenure. Returning her could risk alienating key political forces both in Bangladesh and within India.
Political analyst Zahedur Rahman, speaking to This Week in Asia, noted: “India must have known how unpopular Sheikh Hasina was… But since she fulfilled India’s needs, the Indian government wanted to maintain that status quo.”
He warned that pushing Hasina back to power would provoke greater resentment and unrest, making her return both politically untenable and diplomatically risky.
India now faces a strategic dilemma: if it complies, it may earn short-term goodwill with Dhaka’s current rulers but lose influence with Hasina’s still-substantial support base. If it refuses, diplomatic ties may strain, but India may be seen as shielding a long-time partner from what it views as a politically motivated trial.
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