As the world awaits the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize announcement, Norway finds itself anxiously preparing for a potential diplomatic storm -- particularly if US President Donald Trump does not receive the honour he has long claimed to deserve.
The Norwegian Nobel Committee confirmed earlier this week that it had already finalized its choice for this year’s laureate. Chair Jørgen Watne Frydnes told Norwegian tabloid VG that the decision was made on Monday, explaining that “any potential Middle East peace deal would only be considered for next year’s award.” Speaking to broadcaster NRK, Frydnes emphasized that the Israel-Gaza ceasefire plan brokered by Trump, which came days after the decision, could not influence the outcome.
Political pressure
In the hours before the announcement, Norwegian officials and analysts voiced concern over how Trump might react if passed over. “Donald Trump is taking the US in an extreme direction, attacking freedom of speech, having masked secret police kidnapping people in broad daylight and cracking down on institutions and the courts,” said Kirsti Bergstø, leader of Norway’s Socialist Left Party. “When the president is this volatile and authoritarian, of course we have to be prepared for anything.”
While Oslo has repeatedly stressed that the Nobel Committee acts independently of government influence, Bergstø cautioned that “I’m not sure Trump knows that. We have to be prepared for anything from him.”
Nobel Committee’s independence
The Nobel Committee’s independence is a source of pride for Norway, though many worry that Trump and his supporters will see things differently. Arild Hermstad, head of Norway’s Green Party, underscored that “peace prizes are earned through sustained commitment, not through social media tantrums and not from intimidation.”
Hermstad acknowledged Trump’s involvement in the recent ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, saying, “Any step toward ending the suffering in Gaza is welcome. But one late contribution does not erase years of enabling violence and division.”
Kristian Berg Harpviken, director of the Norwegian Nobel Institute, reaffirmed that the committee’s decisions are “completely independent,” even though its members are appointed by the Norwegian parliament under Alfred Nobel’s will. “Alfred Nobel made it somewhat difficult for us by writing in his will that it must be appointed by the parliament,” he explained. “That, unfortunately, is non-negotiable.”
Trump's lobbying for Nobel Peace Prize
Trump has been outspoken about his belief that he deserves the Nobel Peace Prize, repeatedly citing what he calls his success in ending “seven wars", including India and Pakistan conflict in May which New Delhi has rejected. Trump called Gaza deal the eight one. At the United Nations last month, he told world leaders, “Everyone says I should get the Nobel peace prize.” Earlier in July, Trump reportedly phoned Norway’s finance minister, Jens Stoltenberg — formerly NATO’s secretary general — to ask about his chances.
In a recent statement, Trump predicted the committee would “find a reason” not to award him. “I have no idea… Marco would tell you we settled seven wars. We're close to settling an eighth. I think we'll end up settling the Russia situation… I don't think anybody in history has settled that many. But perhaps they'll find a reason not to give it to me.”
His push has turned into a political spectacle, amplified online by his son Eric and the White House. Even Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu joined in, posting on X: “Give @realDonaldTrump the Nobel Peace Prize – he deserves it!”
Economic stakes for Oslo
The pressure from Washington has placed Norway in an uncomfortable position. Although the Nobel Committee is independent, the prize’s close association with Norway has created diplomatic and economic anxiety. The Scandinavian nation is in the middle of trade negotiations with the United States, hoping to secure relief from a 15% tariff on its exports. Trade Minister Cecilie Myrseth has been meeting with US officials in Washington, while concerns linger that Trump could retaliate economically -- perhaps even targeting Norway’s $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund, nearly 40% of which is invested in US markets.
Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide reiterated that the government “has no role in influencing the Nobel Committee’s decisions,” according to Bloomberg.
Possible outcomes
Observers agree that Trump’s chances of winning are slim. Norwegian commentator Harald Stanghelle suggested that if Trump were to receive the award, “it would be the biggest surprise in the history of the Nobel peace prize.”
Still, Stanghelle acknowledged that Norway must brace for the unpredictable. “He is so unpredictable. I don’t want to use the word ‘fear,’ but there is a feeling that it could be a challenging situation,” he said. “It’s very difficult to explain to Donald Trump or to many other countries that it is a totally independent committee because they do not respect this kind of independence.”
Nina Græger, director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, identified more likely candidates such as Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, the Committee to Protect Journalists, and the Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom. “While he clearly deserves credit for his efforts to end the war in Gaza, it is still too early to tell whether the peace proposal will be implemented and lead to lasting peace,” she noted. “Trump’s retreat from international institutions, and his wish to take over Greenland from The Kingdom of Denmark, as well as infringements on basic democratic rights within his own country, do not align well with Nobel’s will.”
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