A Washington Post poll of 1,010 adults conducted on Oct. 1 finds that 47 percent of Americans blame President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans for the partial shutdown, compared with 30 percent who blame Democrats in Congress. Another 23 percent say they are not sure. Independents were more than twice as likely to blame Republicans as Democrats, while most Democrats pointed to Trump and Republicans. Two-thirds of Republicans, however, faulted Democrats.
The role of health care subsidies
The dispute centres on whether to extend federal subsidies that lower the cost of Affordable Care Act health insurance plans, which are set to expire at the end of 2025. Democrats have demanded an extension, while Republicans have resisted. Overall, 71 percent of Americans support continuing the subsidies, including large majorities of Democrats and independents but only 38 percent of Republicans. A majority of Republicans—62 percent—say the subsidies should end as scheduled.
Concern about the shutdown’s effects
Two-thirds of respondents said they were concerned about the shutdown, though most described themselves as “somewhat concerned” rather than “very concerned.” Concern was highest among Democrats and independents, while fewer than half of Republicans reported being worried. At this early stage, many Americans expressed uncertainty about the direct impact but voiced frustration that partisan fights were disrupting government services.
Hard lines versus compromise
When asked whether lawmakers should stick to their positions or compromise, 47 percent said Democrats should continue to demand subsidy extensions even if the shutdown persists. Another 24 percent wanted Democrats to compromise. Among Republicans, 21 percent wanted the party to insist that subsidies expire, while 8 percent favoured compromise. The data suggest that both parties face pressure from their bases to hold firm, even as the shutdown drags on.
A familiar political pattern
Public blame in this shutdown resembles past episodes where Republicans absorbed more criticism, including two shutdowns during Trump’s first term. The main exception came in late 2023, when more Americans said they would have blamed President Joe Biden and Democrats for a looming shutdown, though a last-minute deal prevented it. The current poll indicates Trump and Republicans again face the greater political risk if the standoff continues.
What it means going forward
While opinion could shift as the shutdown’s impact grows, the early numbers show Republicans starting from a weaker position in the blame game. With independents leaning heavily against them, Trump and congressional Republicans risk political damage if the crisis stretches on. At the same time, Democrats’ insistence on tying the shutdown fight to health insurance subsidies reflects their confidence that the public broadly supports extending the benefits.
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