For the first time in more than half a century, the United States may see more people leave than arrive in 2025, a dramatic reversal in migration trends driven by President Donald Trump’s hardline immigration agenda. A forthcoming paper from economists at Brookings Institution and the American Enterprise Institute predicts a net decline in immigration this year, with deportations rising and new inflows plummeting, the Washington Post reported.
Policy-driven exodus reshaping labour market
A sharp slowdown in both legal and undocumented migration has already reduced the foreign-born workforce by over 1 million since March, according to Labor Department data. The decline threatens to exacerbate labour shortages in agriculture, hospitality, and elder care—industries that rely heavily on immigrant labour.
In Boca Raton, Florida, the Toby & Leon Cooperman Sinai Residences retirement home is laying off dozens of Haitian and Cuban workers whose temporary protected status was revoked. CEO Rachel Blumberg says she expects labour costs to rise by $600,000 annually as she scrambles to fill vacancies with higher wages—costs that will ultimately be passed to residents.
Trump policies driving demographic shift
The White House has ended refugee admissions, blocked entry from a dozen countries, and revoked legal protections for hundreds of thousands of migrants. The administration’s budget proposal includes $150 billion for immigration enforcement, aiming to deport up to 1 million people—including those who arrived legally under Biden-era humanitarian programs.
Meanwhile, threats to revoke student visas, particularly for Chinese nationals, and measures like the halted ability of Harvard to admit international students signal a broader clampdown on legal immigration. Trump has since softened some rhetoric, especially following progress on trade talks with China, but visa policy remains volatile.
Economic fallout already visible
The drop in immigration could have sweeping implications. Fewer immigrants mean fewer workers paying into Social Security and Medicare, slower labour force growth, and potentially higher inflation. “It’s a recipe for higher inflation,” said RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas, especially in low-wage sectors facing sudden labour shortages.
Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler confirmed a slowdown in labour supply, warning of inflationary pressure by year’s end. Still, she noted little wage growth thus far—a signal that employers may struggle to replace lost workers even with better offers.
Fear driving voluntary departures
Some migrants are choosing to leave on their own, citing fear of deportation and uncertainty about their legal status. One Venezuelan woman, who arrived legally under Biden’s parole program, left the US with her family in March after being denied a work permit. “I was afraid they would catch me and my husband and the kids would be left in school,” she said.
Turning point for the US economy
Net migration into the US peaked at nearly 3 million in 2024, helping drive the country’s post-pandemic recovery. But with demographic pressures already shrinking the working-age population, a reversal could mark a structural shift in the labour market. Brookings economist Wendy Edelberg said the US appears headed for “negative immigration” for the first time since at least the 1970s—a trend that could redefine the nation’s economic and political landscape.
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