With the Nobel Peace Prize for 2025 set to be announced on October 10, anticipation is high across global diplomatic circles. Among the loudest voices in the race is that of US President Donald Trump, who insists he deserves the prize for his “unprecedented” peace efforts, including the recent Gaza ceasefire deal. The White House has amplified this claim, calling him “The Peace President” on social media just a day before the Nobel announcement. But, behind the political posturing lies a more sobering reality: while Trump’s team promotes his achievements, experts say his record and the Nobel Committee’s rules make him an unlikely winner this year.
What the Nobel Peace Prize is and how it works
The Nobel Peace Prize, one of the most prestigious global honours, was established in 1901 based on Alfred Nobel’s will. It is awarded “to the person who shall have done the most or the best work for fraternity between nations and the abolition or reduction of standing armies and the formation and spreading of peace congresses.”
The Peace Prize is unique among Nobel awards in that it is presented in Oslo, Norway, and managed by a five-member committee appointed by the Norwegian Parliament. After the annual nomination deadline, the committee reviews the submissions, shortlists promising candidates, and consults independent experts before making its final decision through a majority vote. The entire process remains confidential for 50 years, though nominators often publicise their choices.
This year, the committee confirmed it had received 338 nominations, comprising 244 individuals and 94 organisations.
Trump’s nomination and his supporters
Donald Trump’s claim to the Nobel spotlight is backed by several public endorsements. Among those who have said they nominated or supported him are:
- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
- Pakistan’s Army Chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir
- Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet
- US Congressman Buddy Carter
- Lawmakers from Sweden and Norway
However, many of these endorsements face a significant hurdle. The Nobel Committee’s deadline for nominations was February 1, 2025. Nominations made after that date, such as those from Netanyahu and the Pakistani government, are not eligible for consideration this year.
The committee has also clarified that “to simply be nominated is therefore not an official endorsement or honour,” since all nominations are accepted before vetting. Asle Toje, the deputy leader of the current Nobel Committee, noted, “These types of influence campaigns have a rather more negative effect than a positive one… Some candidates push for it really hard and we do not like it. We are used to working in a locked room without being attempted to be influenced.”
Why Trump is unlikely to win this year
While Trump’s camp has portrayed him as a global peacemaker, Nobel experts see his record as inconsistent with the spirit of the prize. Peter Wallensteen, a Swedish professor and international affairs expert, told AFP, “No, it will not be Trump this year. But perhaps next year? By then, the dust will have settled around his various initiatives, including the Gaza crisis.”
Nina Graeger, director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, pointed out that Trump’s broader record undermines his peace credentials. “He has withdrawn the US from the World Health Organisation and from the Paris Accord on climate, he has initiated a trade war on old friends and allies,” she said. “That is not exactly what we think about when we think about a peaceful president or someone who really is interested in promoting peace.”
Dr Samir Puri, director of the Centre for Global Governance and Security at Chatham House, told Sky News, “There’s an absurdity to Trump’s claims, but like many of his claims, within the absurdity there are sometimes grains of truth.” However, he added, “There is a huge difference between getting fighting to stop in the short-term and resolving the root causes of the conflict,” describing Trump’s efforts as “conflict management” rather than genuine conflict resolution.
According to Associated Press analysis, the Nobel Committee tends to reward “the durability of peace, the promotion of international fraternity and the quiet work of institutions that strengthen those goals.” Experts also believe the committee does not wish to appear as if it is yielding to political lobbying.
Other contenders for 2025
While Trump dominates headlines, he faces competition from numerous organisations and activists recognised for humanitarian and peace-building work. Some of the leading names being discussed include:
- Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, a grassroots network helping civilians amid war and famine.
- Yulia Navalnaya, widow of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who has become a voice for democracy and justice.
- The Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, known for its role in election monitoring.
- United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres, for his global diplomacy efforts.
- UNRWA (United Nations Relief and Works Agency) and UNHCR (UN High Commissioner for Refugees), for their work amid growing humanitarian crises.
- The International Criminal Court (ICC) and International Court of Justice (ICJ), both seen as defenders of global accountability.
- Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) and Reporters Without Borders (RSF), both recognised for defending press freedom during a year of record journalist deaths, especially in Gaza.
Imran Khan, former Prime Minister of Pakistan, nominated by the Pakistan World Alliance and Norwegian party Partiet Sentrum for his “work with human rights and democracy in Pakistan.”
Anwar Ibrahim, Malaysia’s Prime Minister, nominated for his “commitment to dialogue, regional harmony, and peace through non-coercive diplomacy.”
Elon Musk, nominated by Slovenian MEP Branko Grims for “defending freedom of speech.”
Could Trump win in the future?
Despite the widespread consensus that Trump will not win this year, experts say his chances may improve in the future if his diplomatic initiatives lead to durable outcomes. Wallensteen hinted at this possibility, telling AFP, “Perhaps next year?” He noted that time allows for a clearer assessment of whether Trump’s recent ceasefire efforts translate into sustainable peace.
Nina Graeger also suggested that “successfully pressuring Russia to end the war in Ukraine or Israel to stop its war in Gaza” could strengthen Trump’s case for the prize in coming years.
As the Nobel Committee prepares to reveal the 2025 Peace Prize winner, Donald Trump’s self-proclaimed role as “The Peace President” appears more rhetorical than realistic. His record on international cooperation, environmental diplomacy, and global institutions sits uneasily with the values Alfred Nobel envisioned.
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