Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif said on February 27 that the country is now in 'open war' with Afghanistan, following a fresh round of cross-border airstrikes and exchanges of fire. Pakistani forces carried out strikes inside Afghan territory, which Islamabad described as targeting militant camps. The Taliban administration in Kabul condemned the action as a violation of sovereignty.
Both sides have reported casualties.
The bigger question is this: If tensions spiral further, how do Pakistan and Afghanistan actually compare militarily?
Here is a clear, data-driven breakdown.
Manpower
According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies Military Balance, Pakistan fields about 660,000 active military personnel, including roughly 560,000 in the army alone. It also has around 500,000 reserves and close to 290,000 paramilitary personnel.
Afghanistan under Taliban rule reports about 172,000 active personnel, with plans to expand to 200,000. These figures come from Taliban statements and international reporting; there is no independent audit.
Even at the upper estimate of 200,000, Pakistan’s active force would be more than three times larger.
There is no conscription on either side. Both rely on volunteers.
Armour and artillery
Pakistan’s advantage widens when hardware is counted.
Open-source defence data and IISS assessments indicate Pakistan operates:
6,000+ armoured vehicles, including Al-Khalid and T-80 tanks
4,600+ artillery pieces, including howitzers and rocket systems
Afghanistan’s Taliban forces inherited equipment from the former Afghan army, including Soviet-era tanks and armoured vehicles.
Precise operational numbers for Afghanistan are not publicly verifiable.
Air power
Air superiority is where the imbalance becomes unmistakable.
Pakistan’s Air Force operates around 465 combat aircraft, including F-16s and JF-17 fighters, along with more than 250 helicopters. It also deploys airborne early warning systems and an integrated radar network.
Afghanistan has no functional combat jet fleet. Open-source assessments suggest only a handful of fixed-wing aircraft and around two dozen helicopters remain, many with limited operational readiness.
In conventional conflict, air power determines surveillance, precision strikes and mobility. On this metric, Pakistan holds overwhelming superiority.
Nuclear asymmetry
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimates Pakistan possesses about 170 nuclear warheads.
Afghanistan has none.
This creates a strategic asymmetry, though nuclear weapons are designed for deterrence between states, not for limited cross-border engagements.
Budget and industrial base
SIPRI estimates Pakistan’s defence spending at $10.2 billion in 2024, roughly 2.4 percent of GDP.
Pakistan maintains domestic production through Heavy Industries Taxila, Pakistan Aeronautical Complex and Pakistan Ordnance Factories. That means tanks, aircraft maintenance and ammunition production can be sustained internally.
Afghanistan’s defence spending is not transparently published. Media reports citing internal Taliban budget documents suggest far smaller allocations. Afghanistan faces sanctions and financial isolation, and it lacks a functioning domestic defence industry.
Training
Pakistan’s military is structured for conventional war and counter-insurgency. It runs formal academies, conducts joint exercises and operates integrated command systems.
The Taliban’s strength lies in insurgency. Many fighters have decades of guerrilla warfare experience against the Soviets, NATO forces and the former Afghan government.
That experience matters in mountainous terrain. But conventional combined-arms warfare requires logistics, air cover and technical maintenance.
On that front, the balance favours Pakistan.
Intelligence and surveillance
Pakistan operates airborne early warning aircraft and integrated command-and-control networks. It maintains extensive signals intelligence capabilities.
Afghanistan’s intelligence apparatus relies largely on human networks and limited drone use. There is no evidence of a comparable integrated surveillance system.
Geography
The 2,600-kilometre border follows the Durand Line, drawn in 1893. Pakistan recognises it as the legal international boundary. Afghan governments have historically disputed it.
The terrain is mountainous and fragmented. History shows that technologically superior armies have struggled in Afghanistan’s geography.
What the balance sheet really shows
On manpower, air power, armour, artillery, budget and nuclear capability, Pakistan’s military is substantially larger and more technologically advanced.
Reuters has reported that Pakistan’s capabilities are 'vastly superior' to Afghanistan’s.
At the same time, Afghanistan’s Taliban forces have demonstrated resilience in irregular warfare.
The current escalation reflects cross-border counter-militant operations rather than large-scale conventional mobilisation.
The numbers clarify the imbalance.
They do not predict how long escalation might last, how limited it remains, or how diplomacy may intervene.
For now, the declaration of 'open war' raises the stakes. The military arithmetic explains the structure of power behind it.
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