Modi, Xi and Putin to close ranks at SCO: What to expect from the power play as Trump watches uneasily

PM Modi, who is currently on a two-day Japan visit, said on Friday that New Delhi and Beijing must work together to bring stability to the world economic order.

He told Yomiuri Shimbun that since his meeting with President Xi in Kazan last year, steady and positive progress has been made in India-China bilateral ties.

"Stable, predictable, and amicable bilateral relations between India and China, as two neighbours and the two largest nations on earth, can have a positive impact on regional and global peace and prosperity. This is also crucial for a multi-polar Asia and a multi-polar world," PM Modi said.

Beijing also said that improving ties with India is in the interest of both countries, and the two sides have taken steps to steadily stabilise relations after last year’s meeting between Xi and PM Modi.

“The improvement of Sino-Indian relations is a common interest for both countries, as well as the result of joint efforts by both sides,” China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Friday in a written reply to questions. There was no “secret diplomacy” between the two countries, only “normal communication and interaction,” it said.

Trump’s tariff war as the backdrop

What has come as one of the most unexcepted moves by Trump, India now faces a massive 50 per cent tariff on its exports to the US. Along with 25 per cent tariffs on goods, an additional 25 per cent was imposed as penalty for buying Russian oil and “fuelling Putin’s war machine” – a move that clearly highlights America’s hypocrisy given the fact that it continues to ink energy deals with Moscow.

Meanwhile, the ties between the US and China remain volatile. In early 2025, Trump slapped a series of steep tariffs, including fentanyl‑related duties and sweeping “reciprocal” charges, pushing US tariffs on Chinese goods to as high as 145% while China's retaliatory duties reached 125%.

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Despite a temporary truce agreed in Stockholm -- cutting tariffs back to roughly 30% for now -- the deal hinges on an August 12 deadline with Trump holding final say. Meanwhile, US investment in China has plunged -- only 48% of US companies plan to invest this year, down from 80% in 2024 -- highlighting how uncertainty and policy unpredictability are chilling business sentiment.

By treating friends and rivals alike as economic adversaries, Trump has managed to do what few thought possible. He has created incentives for India, China, and Russia to find common ground. For years, the United States counted on India as a counterweight to China. Now, Trump’s aggressive policies have undermined that strategy.

The SCO summit is where the consequences of this approach will be visible. China and Russia are already aligned within the organisation. India, which had been more cautious, now finds itself with reasons to lean closer to them.

Why Modi’s presence matters

India joined the SCO in 2017, but its role has often been complicated. New Delhi has tried to balance its membership with its growing ties to Washington. The SCO was sometimes seen as a platform dominated by China and Russia, where India’s interests might be sidelined.

But Trump’s hostility toward Indian exports and his disregard for India’s concerns have shifted perceptions. Modi’s visit to Tianjin will not just be routine participation. It will be seen as India signalling that it has other options besides relying on the United States.

By standing with Xi and Putin, Modi will be sending a message to Trump that India will not accept being treated as a subordinate. India’s economic ambitions require global partners. If Washington chooses to punish Indian goods with tariffs, New Delhi will look for new markets and new strategic partnerships. The SCO provides a platform for exactly that.

Chance for China

For China, Modi's trip is an opportunity "to drive a wedge between India and the US," said William Yang, an analyst at the International Crisis Group.

"Beijing won't miss the opportunity to present itself as a 'reliable partner' that is interested in deepening relations with New Delhi," he said.

But he noted that India and China still had fundamental differences, despite recent efforts to resolve a longstanding border dispute.

More than 20 leaders including Iranian and Turkish presidents Masoud Pezeshkian and Recep Tayyip Erdogan will attend the bloc's largest meeting since its founding in 2001.

Hosting these many leaders gives Beijing a chance to "demonstrate convening power", said Lizzi Lee from the Asia Society Policy Institute.

But substantial outcomes are not expected, she added, as the summit would be more about optics and agenda-setting.

"The SCO runs by consensus, and when you have countries deeply divided on core issues like India and Pakistan, or China and India, in the same room, that naturally limits ambition," Lee told AFP.

Beijing wants to show it can bring diverse leaders together and reinforce the idea that global governance is "not Western-dominated", she added.

Assistant Foreign Minister Liu Bin said Friday that the summit will bring stability in the face of "hegemonism and power politics", a veiled reference to the United States.

Putin, Xi and Modi: A carefully choreographed image

The image of Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, and Narendra Modi standing together in Tianjin will be more than a photo opportunity. It will be a deliberate reminder to Washington that the world does not revolve around American dictates.

For Xi, this is an opportunity to show that China is not isolated despite Trump’s tariff war. For Putin, it is a chance to reinforce Russia’s relevance in global affairs. For Modi, it is a balancing act, but one that is easier now because of Trump’s missteps.

The three leaders will talk about cooperation, connectivity, and multipolarity. They will praise the “spirit of Shanghai” and stress that the SCO represents an alternative vision of global order. They will also point to the hypocrisy of the United States, which claims to uphold free trade but has in fact undermined it.

The anxiety in Washington

The United States will watch the SCO summit with unease. Trump has spent years trying to contain China and limit Russia’s influence. His hope was that India would remain firmly in the American camp. Instead, his tariff policies have created cracks in that strategy.

The sight of Modi standing with Xi and Putin will unsettle Washington. It will raise doubts about the reliability of India as a partner – which many experts have seen as an aftermath of Trump’s own misadventures. American analysts have warned that Trump’s approach risks driving India into closer alignment with China, which is precisely what Washington wanted to prevent.

The summit will also feed into the narrative that the United States is losing influence in the global south. Many developing countries see Trump’s tariffs as a direct attack on their economies. By contrast, they may see the SCO as a forum where their voices can be heard.

The limits of SCO unity

It is important to be clear that the SCO is not about to replace the United States or NATO. The differences between India and China are real and deep. Border tensions, competition for regional influence, and mistrust will not disappear because of one summit.

The unity displayed in Tianjin will be more symbolic than practical. Aspirational statements about a new international order will not erase the rivalries within the SCO. At best, the summit will show that these countries are willing to put on a united front when it comes to opposing American hegemony.

But even symbolic unity matters. It sends a message to Trump that his policies are backfiring. Instead of isolating China and Russia, he is creating incentives for India to cooperate with them.

The SCO and the Global South

Another important dimension of the SCO summit is its appeal to the global south. Many countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America are weary of American dominance. They see Trump’s tariffs as proof that Washington cares little for the interests of smaller economies.

The SCO, with its talk of multipolarity and equality among states, offers an alternative vision. Even if the organisation’s ability to deliver on promises is limited, the rhetoric itself has value. Countries that feel sidelined by the United States may be drawn to the SCO’s message of a fairer international system.

For India, this is an opportunity to position itself as a bridge. PM Modi can show that India is not simply a follower of the West but an independent player with the ability to shape global debates.

The RIC and BRICS factor

Beyond the SCO itself, the Tianjin summit will reinforce India’s overlapping platforms with China and Russia -- the RIC (Russia-India-China trilateral) and BRICS. Both groupings are gaining fresh momentum. BRICS, now expanded with Gulf and African states, is advancing its push for trade in local currencies. RIC, once considered dormant, is expected to quietly revive as Moscow tries to bridge gaps between Beijing and New Delhi.

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Why Trump should worry

The SCO summit may not bring major policy changes, but its political weight is significant, and it gives Donald Trump reasons to be concerned.

First, Trump’s tariffs on Indian exports have cost him goodwill in New Delhi. India was meant to be a key partner in America’s Asia strategy, but economic pressure has strained that relationship.

Second, instead of isolating China and Russia, the summit allows them to project strength. Both powers can use the SCO to highlight their leadership role on the global stage.

Third, Trump’s approach is hurting America’s image in the global south. His policies make Washington look selfish and unreliable, while the SCO positions itself as a defender of multipolarity and fairness.

Finally, India’s deeper engagement with the SCO weakens America’s claim of building an anti-China coalition. The more active India is in the bloc, the less influence Washington appears to have in shaping regional alliances.