European leaders once quick to condemn Turkey’s democratic backsliding are now treading lightly as security concerns mount and transatlantic tensions with the Trump administration deepen. Turkey’s strategic value—anchored by NATO’s second-largest army and an increasingly robust defence industry—has turned it into a vital partner for Europe’s security ambitions, even as President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan intensifies political repression at home, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Turkey rises in Europe’s rearmament plans
Turkey’s prominence has surged in recent months as the European Union unveiled a major defence expansion effort in response to growing threats from Russia and a fractured alliance with the United States. Turkey was named alongside the UK, Norway, and Canada as a key partner in the EU’s new defence white paper.
With the US signalling openness to a broad accommodation with the Kremlin and retreating from its traditional role as Europe’s guarantor, countries like Germany and Poland are recalibrating. Senior Turkish officials now feature prominently in European security planning—even as Erdoğan’s government detained Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, his chief presidential rival, and launched mass arrests of opposition figures and journalists.
Muted response from the West
Though countries such as France have voiced “deep concern,” European responses have largely avoided linking Erdoğan’s domestic crackdown to defence cooperation. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio offered similar caution, calling the situation “unfortunate” but reaffirming Turkey’s role as a close ally.
Nico Lange, a former senior German defence official, said such pragmatism reflects a shift in European strategic thinking. “Now an adult geopolitical approach to security needs to look into trade-offs,” Lange said. “It’s in our interest to work together with Turkey.”
A new alliance born of necessity
For Poland and other eastern European nations, the calculus is especially stark. With President Trump questioning NATO commitments and pursuing rapprochement with Russia, countries once reliant on US protection are seeking new partners—even if they are authoritarian.
“In the current situation, with the new US administration and the threat from Russia, democratic problems within other countries will not matter that much,” said Igor Janke of Warsaw’s Freedom Institute.
That trade-off has precedent. In 2015, the EU granted billions in aid to Turkey in exchange for curbing migration flows from Syria. Analysts like Gönül Tol of the Middle East Institute say today’s compromises follow a similar pattern. “The EU is turning a blind eye to whatever Erdoğan is doing, for geopolitical reasons,” she said.
Imamoğlu warns West not to trade away values
Writing from prison in a New York Times op-ed, İmamoğlu criticized Western leaders for their silence, warning that Turkey’s growing strategic importance “should not blind us to the erosion of values.” He added, “Otherwise, we legitimize those who are dismantling the global rules-based order piece by piece.”
Italian MP Lia Quartapelle echoed the concern. While acknowledging the need for cooperation with Turkey, she cautioned against placing Erdoğan’s regime in the same league as democratic partners. “Ignoring what is happening inside Turkey is a very shortsighted choice,” she said.
Turkey balances between NATO and Moscow
Turkey’s posture since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has been one of careful balancing. Ankara has refused to join Western sanctions against Moscow and maintains trade ties with Russia. At the same time, it has armed Ukraine, banned Russian warships from entering the Black Sea, and opposed Russian expansionism behind the scenes.
“The thinking is that it would be very inimical to Turkey’s strategic interests if Russia were able to implement this return to zones of influence,” said Sinan Ülgen of Istanbul’s Edam think tank.
Ankara is also wary of reported US overtures to Russia for a broader Middle East security arrangement—a region where Turkey has recently made gains, including helping oust Russian-backed Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad. “A victorious Russia is very dangerous for Turkey,” said Brookings Institution’s Aslı Aydıntaşbaş. “There is an understanding of this.”
Turkish arms exports reshape European security
Turkey has invested heavily in building an indigenous defence industry, prompted in part by arms embargoes imposed by Western allies in past decades. Drone-maker Baykar—best known for its TB2 drones—has emerged as a global player and is acquiring Italy’s Piaggio Aerospace. Turkey also exports artillery, naval vessels, and armoured vehicles to European partners, offering lower-cost alternatives to US or EU-made systems.
“There are few countries in Europe that have long reflected on how to be more independent of the United States—that’s France, that’s Turkey, that’s Sweden,” said Camille Grand of the European Council on Foreign Relations.
How long can values be sidelined?
But even Grand acknowledged limits to how far Europe can go while Erdoğan suppresses political dissent. “Can this last forever? That’s complicated,” he said. “It depends on the scale of the protests inside Turkey, and on the scale of the repression.”
As Turkey’s role in European defence grows, so too does the dilemma for democracies trying to reconcile realpolitik with principle. Whether the West can maintain this uneasy alliance without further eroding the very values it aims to protect remains an open question.
Discover the latest Business News, Sensex, and Nifty updates. Obtain Personal Finance insights, tax queries, and expert opinions on Moneycontrol or download the Moneycontrol App to stay updated!
