Deepening crisis in the Middle East, sustained conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Chinese power play over Taiwan, and the recent flare-up in India's diplomatic relations with Canada - all these geopolitical hurdles have pushed Indian students aspiring for higher studies in foreign institutions to the edge. Flight cancellations, delay in visa processing are some of the major concerns that are affecting the student sentiment.
Canadian education institutions are bracing for a lower number of Indian students in the aftermath of the rising political tension over the murder of Sikh separatist leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar, noted Akshay Chaturvedi, founder and CEO of Leverage Edu, which helps students with higher education and career guidance.
Chaturvedi said that as an immediate precautionary measure, they are stopping all new applications to Canada until there is more clarity on the issue. "We do expect this stand-off to affect the number of Indian students heading to Canada this year. There may not be a major impact policy-wise for Indian students, but there could be a possible drop in demand for Canada as a destination country," he said.
Students head abroad in two tranches, one in August, September, and the other in January, February. Over the past year, studying in Canada has become harder. The country faces an acute housing crisis, and options are limited for many.
Indian students contributed $4.9 billion to the Canadian economy in 2021, and they constituted the largest international student group there, accounting for 20 percent of all international students that year, according to the Canadian Bureau for International Education.
Diplomatic relations between Canada and India hit an all-time low after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called an emergency session of Parliament to announce that Western intelligence sources had “credible evidence” to suggest that Indian government operatives assassinated the Sikh "independence activist" on Canadian soil.
In the first seven months of 2024, India accounted for 107,385 of the 278,250 student permits issued, representing 39 percent of the total.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on September 19 said that the Canadian government plans to grant 35 percent fewer international student permit in 2024 and, that number is going down by another 10 percent in 2025.
"Immigration is an advantage for our economy, but when bad actors abuse the system and take advantage of students, we crack down, Trudeau posted on his social media, handle on X.
The cap on international students and stricter work visa roles have forced thousands of students to seek other countries at the application stage itself.
The Indian government informed parliament in April that over 1.3 million students were studying abroad in 2024.
According to a PTI report, quoting government data, of the 1.33 million Indian students, 427,000 were studying in Canada, 337,630 in the US, 8 in Greece, 8,580 in China, 900 in Israel, Nidan 14 in Pakistan, and 2,510 in Ukraine.
Consultants said that with immigration emerging as a political issue, the cloud over higher education will remain, and the dip will continue until Canada's election, due by October 2025.
Israel-Iran conflict
The ongoing crisis between Israel and Iran seem to be causing the biggest trouble for Indian students.
"Over the past month, we have seen a rising number of enquiries from students and families of students about flight cancellations when flying to Turkey, Greece and other eastern European destinations due to the ongoing conflict escalations in the Middle East and closure of airspaces over Iran, Russia, Jordan, Palestine and Israel," said an Air India official.
The disputes are causing delays and inconveniences for Indian students enrolling in international colleges, said Gaurav Batra, CEO of Infinite Group which offers study abroad solutions. "The prolonged confrontation between Iran and Israel has created a great deal of worry for Indian students who want to study overseas. Delays and flight cancellations are worrying students. Consulate closures or lowered operations are also having an effect on the timeframes for processing visas. Additionally, many international universities require students to have travel insurance, which presents challenges for them to get," Batra said.
Rising cost
The Air India official pointed out that while they have not yet seen a rise in cancellations they do expect travel plans to Europe to become more expensive as more international airlines avoid middle eastern airspaces and flights are cancelled due to ongoing conflicts.
"Indian students are paying more for their travel expenses as a result of flight disruptions, delays and cancellations. The cost of last-minute travel plans, additional lodging costs and rebooking fees are all contributing factors. Students might have to pay an extra $50,000 to $200,000 due to these issues," said Batra.
In this state of uncertainty, students might not take the risk of loans, especially since escalating war pressure can lead to job uncertainty and a slowdown in the European and American economies, noted Sumeet Jain, the co-founder of a Delhi-based consultancy firm for education abroad, Yocket.
"Indian parents and students consider expenses towards foreign education as an investment towards a better life through permanent residency/ citizenship status. Therefore, if there is any negative impact on the employment and immigration prospects of a particular country, its attractiveness takes a significant hit," said Rohin Kapoor, Partner, Management Consulting, BDO India.
One's loss is another's gain
When it comes to study abroad destinations, a popular market like Canada is likely to lose its sheen and other destinations could gain more attention, according to Chaturvedi. "We are asking our students to redirect plans towards the US or the UK, if possible. A lot of destination markets were waiting for Canada to slip up, and now the tides could move in their favour," he said.
October through November is the period when most Indian students travel who are studying overseas. "We estimate that during this time, more than 50,000 Indian students travel overseas. Germany, the UK, Canada, Australia and the US are among the most popular countries for Indian students to study abroad. But nations like Greece, Italy and Turkey are also becoming more and more popular, especially for business, engineering and artistic programs," Batra said.
The total number of students studying abroad is estimated at 1.5 million with the Big 4 – the US, UK, Australia and Canada - contributing around 65 percent, as per the data shared in 2023 by the Ministry of External Affairs. This number is estimated to touch 2 million by 2025 and 3 million by 2027.
Until about five years ago, a high proportion of universities in the top 500 globally came from the Big 4 until things started to change.
Universities from places such as Dubai, Singapore, Japan, Chile, South Korea and Russia in addition to Germany and the Netherlands started gaining traction in terms of ranking, quality of research output and infrastructure, thereby providing alternate options to students.
The British Council survey carried out in April, revealed that around 18 percent of students planning to study in the UK are likely to cancel or delay their plans, higher than the 15 percent for the 2023 winter session. The cancelling percentage is lower than the delaying percentage. Although, the future will unfold the certainty.
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