UN Agencies track 2024 YR4 asteroid as 2032 collision risk remains low

Also Read: This 200-foot newly discovered asteroid has 1-in-83 risk of hitting Earth, warns NASA. Check details

Dr. Robert Massey from the Royal Astronomical Society mentioned that he is "not panicking or losing sleep over it" in response to the news of an asteroid potentially hitting Earth in 2032.

"There is no need for alarm. The thing about this kind of event is that historically they tend to fade away as calculations are refined," Dr. Massey explained, according to BBC.

He also emphasized, "We need to be aware and ensure astronomers have the resources necessary to track these kinds of threats, so that we can act as soon as possible."

If the asteroid were to collide with Earth, it could cause an explosion in the atmosphere, referred to as an "airburst," or create an impact crater if it directly hits the ground.

However, it is far more probable that YR4 would land in the ocean or a remote area of the planet. It is currently too distant from Earth, and there are too many uncertainties at this point to accurately predict where a potential impact might happen, should a collision occur.

YR4 is currently rated a 3 out of 10 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which signals a close approach and the need for ongoing monitoring, with a probability of impact greater than 1%. A collision would only be considered certain if the rating reaches 8, 9, or 10, with the numbers increasing based on the potential damage that could occur.

When asteroids are initially estimated to have a small chance of hitting Earth, that probability typically decreases to zero after further observations.

Any object larger than 50 meters in diameter with a greater than 1% chance of impact triggers precautionary measures. These steps are in place to closely monitor the threat, however small, and take action if necessary to mitigate it, reports to BBC.

The first step is to activate two UN-endorsed asteroid response groups: the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), led by NASA, and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG), led by the European Space Agency.

SMPAG is holding a series of meetings this week to discuss its next steps. While it has determined that immediate action is not necessary at this stage, it has pledged to monitor the evolution of the impact threat and closely track any new information about the asteroid's size.

Another meeting to decide on future actions will take place toward the end of April or early May, or sooner if the threat evolves in a way that warrants it.

If the asteroid's impact probability stays above the 1% threshold, SMPAG will offer recommendations to the UN and may start evaluating potential options.

In the unlikely event that YR4 is on a collision course with Earth, one possible response would be to divert it using a robotic spacecraft, similar to the approach tested successfully by NASA's DART mission in 2022.

According to ESA "It is possible that asteroid 2024 YR4 will fade from view before we are able to entirely rule out any chance of impact in 2032. In this case, the asteroid will likely remain on ESA's risk list until it becomes observable again in 2028."