The 1815 eruption of Indonesia's Mount Tambora shook the world. Its colossal eruption, the most powerful on record, released an immense cloud of particles that cooled the Earth. This event led to what was called the "year without a summer," causing crop failures, starvation, and a cholera pandemic.
Even more chilling is the fact that Tambora’s eruption might have inspired Mary Shelley’s Frankenstein, written during a cold summer in Switzerland. But over two centuries later, scientists warn another eruption could be imminent, and humanity is unprepared.
A Climate Crisis Waiting to Happen
Markus Stoffel, a climate expert at the University of Geneva, says the question is not if, but when the next eruption will happen. Studies suggest there's a one-in-six chance of another massive eruption this century. CNN reported that scientists believe such an eruption could cause severe climate chaos, as the Earth’s climate has changed since Tambora’s eruption. Modern warming may amplify the effects, leaving humanity more vulnerable.
While volcanoes have always influenced the planet, they have a new threat: climate change. Volcanic eruptions release sulfur dioxide, a gas that can cool the planet by reflecting sunlight back into space. When Mount Pinatubo erupted in 1991, it injected 15 million tons of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, cooling the Earth by 0.5 degrees Celsius. Yet, ancient eruptions, like Tambora’s, had a far larger impact, dropping global temperatures by over 1 degree Celsius. Scientists use ice cores and tree rings to understand past eruptions' full effects.
A Warmer World, Greater Risk
Today, the world faces a more unpredictable scenario. Scientists like Michael Rampino of NYU warn that the warming Earth could worsen the effects of a major eruption. The faster circulation of air in the atmosphere could cause sulfur dioxide particles to scatter sunlight more efficiently, cooling the planet faster. Additionally, a warmer ocean surface could intensify cooling in the atmosphere, according to Markus Stoffel. Climate change has also altered volcanic systems, potentially increasing eruption frequencies.
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A volcanic eruption today could trigger more extreme global cooling. As much as a 1-degree Celsius temperature drop could lead to food shortages and political unrest. Scientists are also concerned about the impact on regions like the US, Russia, and China, key global food producers. An eruption like Tambora's could cause losses of over $3.6 trillion, according to recent analysis by insurers at Lloyd's.
The Unpredictability of Eruptions
While the potential for a major eruption is high, it remains impossible to predict exactly where and when it will happen. There are regions under close watch, including Indonesia and Yellowstone in the US. Yet, even experts cannot foresee the next major volcanic event.
“Massive eruptions can’t be prevented, but we must prepare,” said Stoffel. He calls for global collaboration to assess the risks and devise emergency plans. Stress tests, evacuation plans, and securing food supplies should be a priority. While the probability of a massive eruption may seem small, the risks are too great to ignore.
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