Trump wants Canada to be '51st US state': Is it possible?

Responding to Trump’s remarks, Canadian political leaders have firmly rejected the idea.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau quickly dismissed the notion, stating that there is "no snowball’s chance in hell" that Canada would ever become part of the US. Similarly, Foreign Minister Melanie Joly criticised Trump’s comments, accusing him of a "complete lack of understanding" of Canada’s independence. Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre also rejected the proposal, declaring that "Canada will never be the 51st state."

Trump, during the press meet, also raised concerns about Canada’s military capabilities, calling the country’s defense "unfair" because of its reliance on US support. He suggested that Canada should contribute more to its own defense. However, he stated that military action was not on the table to incorporate Canada into the US.

The exchange comes at a particularly sensitive time for Canada. Trudeau recently announced his resignation as Prime Minister, though he will remain in office until his party elects a new leader by March 2025.

Canada's historical resistance to US annexation

The idea of Canada merging with the US has been met with strong resistance throughout history. In the 19th century, the notion of American "Manifest Destiny" — the belief that the US was destined to expand across North America — led to several failed attempts to annex Canadian territories. The War of 1812, in which British forces repelled US invasions of Canada, helped foster a distinct Canadian identity and a deep-seated resistance to American influence.

In more recent history, efforts to integrate more closely with the US have also faced significant pushback. For example, Prime Minister Wilfrid Laurier’s attempt in 1910 to negotiate a tariff agreement with the US was met with public backlash and led to his defeat in the following election. Similarly, while the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement (FTA) signed in the 1980s by Prime Minister Brian Mulroney was eventually successful, it sparked considerable opposition from some sectors of Canadian society.

Is a US-Canada merger possible?

Despite Trump’s remarks, recent polling shows that the idea of Canada merging with the US is overwhelmingly rejected by Canadians. As per a December 2024 survey by Leger, only 13 percent of Canadians support the notion of Canada becoming the 51st state, while 82 percent oppose it.

Source: Bloomberg

While Canada and the US share extensive trade and security ties, the prospect of merging the two nations remains highly unpopular. Trade between the two countries is robust, with approximately C$3.6 billion worth of goods crossing the border daily. Canada is also a major supplier of oil, uranium, and potash to the U.S., making it a critical partner in energy and agriculture.

However, Trump’s threat to impose tariffs could strain this bilateral tie. Canadian premiers, including Doug Ford of Ontario, have already stated that they would retaliate if Trump follows through with his tariff plans, particularly regarding exports of energy resources.

Trump’s comments also clash with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which replaced NAFTA and governs trade relations between the three nations. The USMCA is crucial to maintaining a stable and balanced trade environment in North America, and any disruption to this framework could have far-reaching economic consequences for both countries.

Despite Trump’s repeated provocations, Canada’s political leaders remain firm in their opposition to the idea of merging with the US. As tensions over potential trade conflicts rise, Canada's commitment to its sovereignty remains strong. As Foreign Minister Melanie Joly put it, "We will never back down in the face of threats," underscoring Canada’s determination to retain its independence.