Super Micro’s S&P 500 inclusion pushes rally near 1,000%

Super Micro’s addition to the S&P 500 Index means that the benchmark will have even more AI representation outside of the top technology companies that have led the broader market higher this year. Deckers Outdoor Corp. will also be added to the index, replacing Whirlpool Corp. and Zions Bancorp.

The San Jose, California-based company’s surge received an additional boost in January when it reported preliminary results that exceeded Wall Street expectations and signaled strong demand for AI.

“In just over a year, its stock price soared from around $102 to over $1,000, attributed to increased demand for AI—related products and positive growth forecasts,” Rosenblatt Securities Inc. analyst Hans Mosesmann wrote in a note dated March 4. Mosesmann has a buy rating and the Street-high price target of $1,300 for shares of Super Micro.

To be sure, the stock has experienced some volatility in recent weeks. At the end of February, short sellers betting on declines in the stock notched paper gains of $1.2 billion when shares tumbled 20% in one day. Since then, the shares have traded even higher, putting year-to-date paper losses for the group at more than $3.2 billion, according to data from S3 Partners LLC.

And, while stocks generally leap on news that they are joining the S&P 500 Index, gains are usually muted once they have been added, Sisely said.

“For people who think this means that all of a sudden this pushes Super Micro Computer up even more, I’d temper that,” she said. “Following the completion of the inclusion, you usually see the stock sell off a little bit.”

Still, Wall Street is overall bullish on the company. Super Micro has 11 buy ratings, four holds and only one sell, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The current average price target of $819 implies a roughly 24% downside for shares, but analyst targets often lag rallies like the one that Super Micro has seen.