China Watch | There is distrust in China about India’s strategic objective: Odd Arne Westad

In your assessment, China has grown more authoritarian at home and more aggressive abroad. Is likely to intensify under Xi’s third term?

Yes, unfortunately that is the direction Chinese foreign policy seems to be taking. My emphasis is primarily on authoritarianism at home which I think has gone further than the aggression abroad. But both are linked and it is a question of political systems and how that contributes to a much more aggressive foreign policy.

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But did the US policy of containing China contribute to China’s aggressive behaviour abroad?

I think many things in the United States have contributed to pushing China further in the direction of a more assertive and more nationalist foreign policy. This is a phenomenon that you see in many countries. India is a good example of this as well, where you see a much more nationalist turn in foreign affairs that is driven by not just one’s own thinking but also the views of others.

You said the US should form an alliance with other Asian countries to deal with China. But most countries are hedging bets on China. Is the reluctance to go against China due to the US track record of not sticking around with allies?

I think a lot of China’s neighbours are concerned about their security as China’s foreign policy has become more assertive. From their perspective, they must think about the kind of relationship they would have not only with the US but also with other partners. It is not just about the US but the overall security for the region where they can think jointly about how they are going to handle some of these struggles. But the US has a role to play in these kinds of arrangements. It is very important though that this is not seen as something the US tries to impose on others because if that is the case, it will not work.

At the SCO summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that China has concerns about the Ukraine war. But he went back and annexed 4 regions in Ukraine.. What kind of a signal did that send to China?

If we look at China’s view of the war in Ukraine, this is not a war China wanted but it has tried to draw advantages from. Russia has become almost entirely dependent on China. First and foremost, in economic terms, but also gradually in political and security terms. China in many ways is in an advantageous position when it comes to this conflict. Of course, it is not directly involved and can say that it stands for principles of non-intervention; while criticising the West for having fanned the flames that have led us here. But there will be a point when the Chinese leadership will conclude this has gone on for long enough and advise the Russian leadership to settle. But that is not the case yet. I think it will go on for quite a while before China arrives at that point.

China perhaps thought it would be a shorter war, so how will this long conflict now affect its relationship with Russia?

It all depends on how far China is willing to go in its support for Russia. For instance, when it comes to the use of weapons of mass destruction that clearly is something China would find massively problematic. Likewise, it would also find it very problematic if the Russian frontline should really collapse in the east.

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But will a weakened Russia help China bargain better with the US?

I do not think that is what the Chinese are after. They have been aware of Russia’s weakness. I mean Russia was weak even before this invasion took place, which is why the gamble is such a dangerous one for Putin. Russia has now become entirely dependent on China which makes it a very important bilateral relationship in resource terms and much more advantageous for China than China’s relationship with the US. They are not particularly concerned about the influence this conflict, at the present stage would have on that relationship.

But what lessons will China draw from the Ukraine war?

I think there was a surprise in China about the relatively high degree of cohesion on the Western side that the attack on Ukraine has led to. The Chinese had expected much more dissidence and division in the relationship between the US and Europe. With regard to Taiwan, which is the issue that stands out as a comparison here, some lessons have been drawn. Though the situations are very different Beijing has been preoccupied about what the potential fallout will be. But will it change Chinese foreign policy orientation? I think, almost certainly not.

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What about China’s relation with India and how is it likely to pan out?

The relations with India have become more significant for China over the past few years, though not necessarily in a positive way. There is a high level of distrust on the Chinese side with regard to India and its strategic objectives. The stand-off that we have now for over two years has contributed further to that view. Some people have been saying that India and China’s approach to the war in Ukraine might have helped with the bilateral relationship. But I see no such signs on the Chinese side whatsoever.

Will there be some movement towards a resolution of the border crisis after Xi’s third term or will it go on for a longer period?

It is hard to see that happening now. From a Chinese perspective, the necessities in President Xi’s third term will be first and foremost economic. There are structural problems in the Chinese economy that will have to be dealt with. If they have to deal with the circumstances and effects of a global economic downturn, that will make it harder. But that will mean there will be more focus on the economy.