China’s population shrank for the third straight year in 2024, even though births rose slightly, underscoring a lingering long—term risk for the economy.
The total number of people in China fell by over 1.39 million to 1.408 billion last year, according to data released by the National Statistics Bureau on Friday.
Some 9.54 million babies were born in 2024, 520,000 more than a year earlier, possibly because the year of the dragon in the Chinese zodiac is deemed lucky by some parents. Still, the number of births was the second lowest since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949.
The annual drop shows how the Chinese government has struggled to halt a falling birth rate, the result of decades of restrictive family planning policies, rising childcare costs and changing social norms. The number of newborns has been declining steadily since the 1960s, except for a brief uptick in 2016 as the government relaxed its one-child policy.
Bloomberg Intelligence earlier estimated that China’s population will drop to 1.36 billion by 2035, a level unseen since 2012, though that could be delayed if couples can be convinced to have more babies. In October, the authorities pledged to better support families with multiple children, including by helping with housing, health care and employment.
China’s demographic plight could could eventually hurt the nation’s economic prospects because it’s causing the workforce to shrink. Additionally, an expanding elderly population would pile more pressure on the underfunded pension system.
Last year, China said it would gradually raise the retirement age for the first time since 1978, despite the public disgruntlement the decision caused.
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