Brazilian riots highlight challenges before new President Lula

Bolsonaro has condemned the riot and distanced himself from the protesters.

But Sunday's violence can be seen as a precursor to what may happen if Lula tries to pursue any criminal case against the former president for negligence and misuse of office.

“Stolen” election?

Thousands of Bolsonaro supporters surrounded the presidential building and vandalised several government structures on January 8 to protest the allegedly “stolen” election that brought Lula to power.

Lula’s supporters and other leftist organisations, on the other hand, have plans to hold country-wide rallies to show solidarity with the president and raise their voices against the rioters.

In recent months, there has been enough indication that Bolsonaro’s supporters were not happy with Lula’s victory.

When Lula was sworn in for a historic third term as Brazil’s president on New Year’s Day, the ceremony attended by thousands of cheering supporters and several foreign dignitaries was held under tight security in the face of threats of violence by supporters of Bolsonaro.

Rule of law promised

“Our message to Brazil is one of hope and reconstruction,” Lula said before the Chamber of Deputies—the lower house of Congress -- on January 1.

Lula said that “we do not carry any spirit of revenge against those who tried to subjugate the nation to their personal and ideological designs.”

However, he was quick to add that his government “will guarantee the rule of law” and “those who erred will answer for their errors.”

Lula has accused Bolsonaro’s administration of committing “genocide” by failing to respond properly to the Covid-19 emergency that killed nearly 680,000 Brazilians.

“The responsibility for this genocide must be investigated and must not go unpunished,” he said.

This was a clear warning to the former president and the rioting in the capital indicates how things may turn out if Bolsonaro is prosecuted for his alleged crimes.

Observers say that Brazil is a country which is deeply divided and the storming of its Congress is a dramatic sign of how far some Brazilians are willing to go to attack the democratic institutions they feel no longer represent them.

Challenges before Lula

The leftist president now faces a set of challenges that relate to both internal developments and to changes that have taken place in Brazil’s external environment in recent years.

Lula won the presidential election in October last year by the narrowest margins—with 50.9 percent of the votes to Bolsonaro’s 49.1 percent.

Bolsonaro had been telling his supporters that if he lost the election, it should be treated as fraudulent.
For the past two months, supporters of the former president have been blocking highways and airports and camping outside military barracks, asking the army to take over to prevent Lula from becoming president.

Bolsonaro had also challenged the electoral verdict by filing a case before the Supreme Electoral Court. But his petition was not only dismissed, the court also fined him millions of dollars for “bad faith litigation.”

Though Bolsonaro finally accepted the verdict, he decided to break from tradition by leaving the country for Florida without handing over the presidential sash to his successor.

Bolsonaro is a known admirer of former American President Donald Trump and his supporter’s vandalism is a reminder of the violence launched by Trump’s supporters when they stormed the US Congress in January 2021 to challenge the victory of Joe Biden in the presidential election.

There is evidence that close advisors of Trump had been active in social media for the past months to urge supporters of Bolsonaro to reject the “stolen” election that brought Lula to power.

External compulsions

But Lula faces equally strong challenges from changes that have taken place in the world since he was president from 2003 to 2010.

Primarily this has to do with the weakness in the global economy that has been hammered by two years of lockdown during the Covid pandemic and the ongoing Ukraine war.

In his first administration, Lula had managed to fuel Brazil’s rapid growth based on huge demand from China of Brazilian soybeans, iron ore, oil, and meat.

This had helped him expand the base of the country’s middle class, encourage infrastructure investments, and successfully bid for the Olympics and the football World Cup.

But Brazil’s growth has been sputtering in recent years and China and the global economy are weaker.

Promise of three square meals

Lula’s campaign had been focused on getting Brazilians three square meals and giving more aid to the poor.

He has also promised to expand cash transfers, forgive the debt, and launch a big infrastructure programme to boost growth and provide jobs.

But the budget has already been negotiated and approved for 2023, leaving little room to address social needs like combating hunger and childhood malnutrition.

Lula wants to lift the spending limit to fund an increase in the minimum wage and an expansion in the social welfare programme. He also wants to make taxation simpler and more progressive to help growth.

But for this, he must get approval from the Congress that is dominated by Bolsonaro’s party and allies.

As Lula tries to balance between restoring democracy in Brazil and enlisting Congress’ support for his ambitious economic and social welfare programmes, all his political skills and experience will come into play.

How he fares in uniting the fiercely polarised country and putting Brazil back on the global stage will be crucial in the next four years.