Putin third time lucky; will need new strategy now: Expert

Vladimir Putin ran to victory yet again in the presidential election in Russia. Richard Sakwa, professor of Russian and European politics at the University of Kent and the author of several books on the Russian politics and society, spoke to CNBC-TV18 for his perspective on the win, a quick political as well as economic impact analysis.

Below is the edited transcript of his comments. Also watch the accompanying video. Q: This victory was mostly expected despite the wide large scale protest that we have seen in Russia over the course of the last several weeks. How do you assess the challenges facing Putin as he reassumes that presidential mantel? A: He has to two major challenges; the first one is the political one that yes, he has won the election by 64%, but he is a tired, if you like. He has to rejuvenate his leadership, genuine political leadership and so that he can tent his popularity which does exist and which is genuine, even though in some cases it has fallen. He has to now show that he is a genuine leader who can push forward the political reform. Only with political reform can change the investment climate to make sure that businesses do not feel challenged constantly by this mixture of official bureaucracy attacking them. So it's a double edge sword which connects political and economic change. Q: I am sure he recognises the need for political reform more now than ever before. What in your mind would be the realistic goals that he could set out to achieve, keeping all of his earlier presidential terms in mind, keeping in mind the current prevailing environment in Russia of protest as well? A: The paradox is that he has come to a third term in which he would have to undermine much of what he has achieved in the first two terms. So in the 80s, he was building the Putin system and now in the next year, he has to dismantle elements of that in order to survive. He wouldn't be the only political who has had to change quite dramatically, but if he tries to use the same method that he did in the first two terms the 2008, then he is going to face a major political challenge, and of course, intensify economic stagnation and the economic lack of diversification and competitiveness in the economy. Q: What do you expect to see him doing, let us say the beginning on the first year of his term? A: The first thing he has to do is to consolidate the political reforms announced by Medvedev on December 22. This means a more genuine party system and he has to restore elections of governance and those are concrete measures. At the same time, he has to take the fight against corruption seriously. Of course, he helped to establish this system but, he has to undermine the system that he has established. Q: In the face of the political challenges that Putin faces, what are likely to be the several economic issues that he will also have to attend to very urgently? A: At the moment, the balance is at about USD 110 per barrel. It looks as if there is a critical crisis in the Middle East, so the price of oil will not be falling soon. But that is actually a danger because it could lead to a temptation to postpone the necessary reforms. He first of all has to privatize and open up the economy to secure production for inward investment from abroad and native business people feel secure. That means establishing strengthening the rule of law. It is a huge political challenge, but if he doesn't do that, his third presidency is going end in catastrophic failure. He understands that he has to change the style of leadership and a substance of his policy. Q: The Economist has, on its cover page this weekend, the headline that 'This is the beginning of the end of Putin', would you agree with that? A: I absolutely disagree. I think this is the beginning of a new Putin.