Monsoon likely to be normal; Aug saw reduction in rains: IMD

According to India Meteorological Department (IMD), the country will receive normal rainfall over the 2016 monsoon season and not surplus as previously expected.

DS Pai, Director, IMD in an interview to CNBC-TV18 said the department would assess rainfall for the  next one week and would update on the forecast. As of now, there was drastic reduction in rainfall in August, he said. Below is the transcript of DS Pai’s interview to Manisha Gupta and Prashant Nair on CNBC-TV18. Manisha: Tell us what are the concerns right now and surplus and normal does not look so bad. But where do you see the concerns coming in when we look geographically? A: So far, particularly in the month of August, there was a drastic reduction in the rainfall particularly in the Southern part of the country. However, we have not so far, we will be assessing it for the next one week how the rainfall occurs and we are also analysing what could likely to be in September. And then we will come up with an update for the forecast. However, we are still believing that rainfall can be normal to above normal. Manisha: As of now, since it is 2 percent below normal, what is your sense on how much recovery can be seen because as we understand by the time it is August and getting into September, the recovery really does not come in so fast. A: Typically, anything can happen. And even if you see the statistics, September rainfall many times has gone to 140-150 percent though we are not expecting that much to occur. And if you go by September rainfall then upgrade around 4-5 percent, only September rainfall. So, the most crucial period is the next one week and next one or two days we are expecting a low pressure to form in the central bay, so therefore there can be some improvement in the rainfall activity in the southern peninsula. Already northwest India and central India is above 100 percent, only the east and northeast India has got a deficiency of 15 percent and southern peninsula deficiency of 13 percentage is a problem area. But we are expecting some improvement in the rainfall activity in the coming days over south peninsula. Manisha: Also, when you look at the geographical distribution, you said south can have more issues. What is your sense on the eastern part because that is yet another area which has seen the biggest deficit that we have seen across market? A: This area also has got a normal or very high. And also rivers are flowing across the area. And already we have got a good rainfall though it is not expected. We had predicted a 90 percentage. So, here deficiency is around 15 percentages. But main deficient areas are Assam and Meghalaya and last few days there was some good rainfall activity. I do not think that this area generally some deficient of 15 percent does not make a much issue around northeastern part. Manisha: Also you are saying it is two percent deficient overall, but what is the number for the month of August because we started June late, that was a deficient month, July has been a good month and what is your number for August now? A: August so far it is 93 percentage. Prashant: Could you tell us on an average, how much could you divide the rainfall in percentages in July, August and September? How much of rainfall on an average over a very long period do we receive in September? A: September, we get around 25 percent of the season. August 29 percent. July 33 percent and June 18 percent. Prashant: Is there is a silver lining to this downgrading of forecast as well? We were hearing that in many parts of the country especially, pulse growing areas, there was excess rainfall. Now, pulses can take some amount of excess rainfall, standing water, etc. for a while. But in areas which received adequate rainfall maybe a little bit of excess rainfall, is there a silver lining as well as you see it? A: Particularly Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, which had particularly large deficiency even Karnataka except coastal Karnataka. In north Karnataka last time we had large deficiency. These areas already there is good rainfall. So beginning of the season since we had a good rainfall activity, it has helped a lot. And hereafter even some days even if you do not have rain, that takes place once or twice in a week, that can be enough for the crops pricing as well. Manisha: I had one more question and this was about the water reservoirs. In case you could put some light on that because until last week the numbers were not so great. A: The latest, I do not have exactly but, there was large improvement compared to the last year between the July as well. I do not have exact numbers now. That is why I do not want to comment. Prashant: Can you tell us when is the last time you had, not deficient rainfall, but at this time of the monsoon, in August, it looked like rainfall would fall short of your initial expectations and by the end of season, September turned out to be bumper. And you ended basically with the wrong forecast. Can you go back in history and tell us when is the last time this happened? September turned out to be unusually large rainfall. A: If you see 2010, initially we had announced deficiency and then September gave good rainfall and it actually overcame large deficiency and it ended at actually 102 percent in 2010.