The latest news from China that the business centre of Shenzhen, Jilin province has been put under a strict lockdown in the wake of a fresh spurt in COVID-19 cases has raised fresh worries internationally.
But scientists with the Indian government’s coronavirus genomic surveillance programme, INSACOG, said that there may not be reason for alarm to go locally, even as the Omicron-triggered third wave has now ebbed.
In many parts of the world, including Europe and the US, a fresh surge in COVID-19 cases had been reported over the last few weeks, mainly triggered by the BA.2 sub-lineage of the Omicron variant which was first reported in South Africa in late November last year.
The Omicron variant, the highly transmissible COVID-19 virus variant, has two main sub-lineages, BA.1 and BA.2, of which the latter has been found to be even more contagious.
Omicron’s BA.2 sub-lineage in India
In India, the BA.2 sub-lineage was already found in more than 80 percent of the samples that were subjected to whole genome sequencing in January this year at the peak of the Omicron wave. Most of these cases were asymptomatic in nature and were detected through the contact tracing exercise in states.
Also read: Omicron’s BA.2 lineage found in 82% COVID-19 samples in India
Now there are reports that a still more mutated version of Omicron’s BA.2 sub-lineage, unofficially being called BA.2.2, has been found in Hong Kong and some parts of China.
But back home, scientists have asserted that the worst of the Omicron wave is over.
“The characteristics of BA.2 and BA2.2 look similar and since BA.2 has already been the dominant strain in the country, I do not see a reason why India should worry,” said Anurag Agarwal, director of the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR)-Indian Institute of Genomics and Integrative Biology in Delhi.
CSIR-IGIB is an institute associated with the INSACOG network. Dr Agarwal added that the characteristics of BA.2 and BA.2.2 look similar.
Another scientist attached with INSACOG, who did not wish to be identified, stressed that the countries and regions reporting a sharp rise in hospitalisations and deaths due to COVID-19 are mainly those that have adopted a “zero-COVID approach” since the beginning of the pandemic.
“Places like Hong Kong had managed to restrict COVID-19 numbers to very low levels but with the highly contagious Omicron the situation has changed and the virus is now creating havoc there,” the scientist said.
“However, I do not see any reason for a surge in cases in India unless there is a new variant dramatically different from the ones that have infected people so far.”
The falling COVID-19 numbers in India
The country has been witnessing a sharp decline in cases since January 21 when nearly 3.75 lakh new cases were recorded in a day.
Also read: Fresh COVID-19 cases over 24 hours touch lowest in 680 days
On March 14, the daily infections—at 2,503— were the lowest in 680 days while the active caseload, a little over 36,000, was the lowest in 675 days. Also, with 27 fatalities recorded in the last 24 hours, the deaths (including backlog deaths) stayed below 100 for the third consecutive day.
Authorities have maintained that the Omicron wave in India has been distinct from the previous two pandemic waves with remarkably low rates of hospitalisation and deaths.
Many of them have attributed this to high coverage of COVID-19 vaccinations and the mild nature of the mutant virus, which mostly does not reach the lungs.
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