Israel’s refusal to agree to a humanitarian pause in its military operation in Gaza has raised the spectre of the war on Hamas expanding into a regional conflict.
Israel refused the United States’ suggestion for a humanitarian pause in its attack on Gaza, saying it will not halt its operations until the hostages in Hamas’ custody are released.
The decision is in total disregard for the growing global concern about the sufferings of the Palestinians.
The supply of food, medicine, and other essentials to Gaza has been suspended because of the Israeli army’s attack, which caused a humanitarian crisis in the Mediterranean coastal Palestinian enclave.
The decision is also a challenge to Hezbollah, who had threatened to escalate the war into a regional conflict if Israel continued its attack.
The Lebanon-based Shiite militant group warned that there was a possibility that the fighting at the Lebanese front could turn into war.
In his first speech, Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said, “The Americans can stop the aggression against Gaza.”
He said, “Whoever wants to prevent a regional war must quickly halt the aggression on Gaza.”
Both his supporters and observers around the world tried to ascertain whether Hezbollah would step up its fight against Israel and the US and turn it into a regional conflict into a full war.
Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu told US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken after his meeting that unless the 200 hostages are released by Hamas, Israel will not stop its operation.
It now depends on how Hezbollah reacts to the Israeli decision.
If it escalates into a wider war, it will have ramifications for both West Asia and the world.
It can disrupt the supply of oil from the Gulf and lead to a spike in energy prices and inflation worldwide.
The global economy has already been under stress from the pandemic lockdown and the Ukraine war.
It would face increased pressure because of the new conflict, and this could lead to serious economic hardship for most countries.
How strong is Hezbollah?
Hezbollah is regarded as the strongest non-state military in the world.
It has a wide array of weapons in its arsenal, including anti-tank, anti-aircraft, and anti-ship missiles.
It also claims to have 100,000-odd, well-trained fighters.
Hezbollah is already fighting Israel at the Israeli-Lebanese frontier, keeping Israel busy.
The group, founded by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards in 1982, has been the spearhead of the Tehran-backed alliance hostile to Israel and the US.
Western observers say Hezbollah’s entry into the war could be a game-changer.
Its fighters are well-trained, armed, and experienced in fighting the Israeli military.
Hezbollah also has a political and social presence in Lebanon and participates in elections.
It also runs a wide social network with schools, hospitals, and cultural activities.
Its capability has not been limited to the region but also to other parts of the world, where it has targeted Israelis and Americans.
However, Hezbollah is not sure how its entry into a full-fledged war with Israel will impact Lebanon, which has been struggling with a serious economic crisis since 2019.
Though Nasrallah's speech was followed keenly by a large number of people in Lebanon, there is rising apprehension in Lebanon about getting drawn into a debilitating war.
A wider conflict would also be a challenge for both the US and China, whose footprint in the region has grown in recent years.
China gets most of its oil from the Gulf countries, which is essential for its economic growth.
Uncertainty in energy supply could strain its economy further, which is trying to step out of an economic slowdown after a prolonged lockdown.
The US has backed Israel’s action against Hamas. But it is also facing rising pressure in the Global South and in sections in the West about the misery of the Palestinians.
The US military is already under pressure because of Ukraine and the developments in the Taiwan Straits.
It would like to avoid a third front opening in the Middle East.
Russia is the only big power that could gain from developments in the Middle East, as this would keep the US preoccupied with Israel and shift focus from Ukraine.
If the Israeli assault on the Palestinians continues in Gaza, the Arab street protests could force the rulers to play a more proactive role in the ongoing war.
Stakes for India
The West Asian region is extremely crucial for India.
It is not only the main source of energy for the country but also for trade and investment.
There are also nine million Indians living and working there.
A wider conflict could force India to move these people to a safer place, which in itself might pose a huge challenge.
Despite Netanyahu’s tough stand, Hezbollah may limit itself to fighting at the frontier without escalating its role into a full war.
This will depend on Iran, its main backer.
However, a rising death toll in Gaza could draw in Hezbollah and others, turning this war into a wider regional conflict with major ramifications for the world.
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