With Congress’ 3-0 win in Hindi heartland, saffron map shrinks

Here’s a look at how BJP splashed saffron across the map of India over the last four and a half years and how Congress has stopped it:

The 'Modi Tsunami'

The saffron party and its allies have been on a roll since the Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) came to power in May 2014. As a result, the political map of India was splashed with saffron.

Prior to the win in the General Election, the BJP was already in power in five states — Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Nagaland.

However, 2014 was the year that changed it all for the BJP. The party came to power in the Centre with its largest mandate, in what many described as a "Modi Tsunami". The saffron party won 282 seats, while its allies won 54 seats, taking the NDA's tally to 336.

Effects of the 'Modi Tsunami' continued to be felt as a "Modi Wave" in the state elections that followed.

BJP's ally, the Sikkim Democratic Front (SDF), retained the state of Sikkim in an election that was held simultaneously with the Lok Sabha polls. Another BJP (now former) ally, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), also formed bifurcated Andhra Pradesh's first government.

The Modi juggernaut

Five months after the General Election, the BJP won 122 seats in the 288-member Maharashtra Assembly. They formed the government in Maharashtra following a post-poll alliance with NDA ally Shiv Sena. The party also came to power in the northern state of Haryana after winning 47 seats in a 90-member assembly.

BJP, along with its allies, secured a majority in the Jharkhand Assembly election shortly after.

The party was the second-best performer in the state of Jammu and Kashmir, behind Mehbooba Mufti-led People's Democratic Party (PDP). A post-poll alliance with the PDP helped BJP come to power in the state.

By the end of the year, BJP had extended its reach to 11 states across the country.

In 2015, BJP's growth story witnessed two major hiccups when they faced crushing defeats in Delhi and Bihar, in spite of extensive campaigning by the prime minister.

While BJP ended a 15-year Congress rule in Assam in 2016, the party failed to make a mark in the other three major state elections — West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu. However, BJP supporters were quick to point out that the saffron party did not have adequate reach in those states.

In September 2016, Arunachal Pradesh's 47 Members of Legislature (MLAs) from the ruling Congress defected to BJP. The lawmakers were able to prove majority on the floor of the house, helping BJP form a government in the hill state.

In 2017, BJP bagged Uttarakhand and won a large mandate in the state of Uttar Pradesh. The party lost in Punjab after two terms of rule along with ally Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD).

In Goa and Manipur, the BJP won lesser seats than main rival Congress. But, the party was quick to stitch together an alliance with regional parties and Independents to form a government in both states.

Map of state ruled by BJP and allies

The Coup in Bihar

In July 2017, Nitish Kumar, Chief Minister of Bihar, resigned from his post and broke his party's 'Grand Alliance' with Lalu Prasad Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress.

Nitish was sworn in as the new Chief Minister less than 24 hours after he resigned, but this time with the support of the BJP. The following day, Nitish and his new government, formed with the BJP, won the crucial trust vote in the Bihar State Assembly, with 131 legislators voting in favour and 108 voting against.

In December 2017, the BJP sprang to power in Himachal Pradesh, riding on a wave of anti-incumbency. Jai Ram Thakur was sworn in as the state’s chief minister days after their CM candidate, Prem Kumar Dhumal, suffered a shock defeat.

After months of bitter campaigning, the saffron party managed to retain PM Modi and party president Amit Shah’s home state of Gujarat with a close margin. Congress made serious gains in the state, especially in the rural areas, in what was interpreted by many as sounding of the bugle for state elections to be held in 2018.

Wins in Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat extended BJP’s winning run to 19 states in the country.

The close win in Gujarat was followed by a convincing triumph in Tripura in March this year. The saffron party also formed governments in Meghalaya and Nagaland, along with its allies.

While the BJP won just two out of 60 Assembly seats in Meghalaya, the party was quick to negotiate an alliance with the National People’s Party (NPP) — who bagged 19 seats — to keep out Congress — who had won 21 seats.

The biggest surprise, however, came from Tripura where the BJP breached the Left bastion convincingly. BJP’s tally rose from zero Assembly seats in 2013 to 36 in 2018, out of 60. The CPI (M), led by Manik Sarkar, ended up with just 16 seats.

In Nagaland, the party secured 12 seats and dumped its partner Nagaland People’s Front (NPF) to join hands with the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP).

The BJP faced its first setback in a while after it failed in Karnataka. While the party improved its seat count in May this year, it failed to unseat the Congress government. Shortly after the election trends became clear, Congress reached out to former prime minister HD Deve Gowda-led Janata Dal (Secular).

However, the Governor invited BJP’s BS Yeddyurappa to form the government. Days later, the Supreme Court shortened the time frame given to Yeddyurappa to prove his majority. Sensing the lack of numbers on his side, Yeddyurappa resigned before the floor test. This paved the way for JD(S)’ HD Kumaraswamy to take over as the Chief Minister with Congress’ support.

Before December 12, Karnataka was the only large state that was being governed by the Congress.

BJP considers the Hindi heartland as its bastion. So the loss of three major northern states ahead of the 2019 general elections is a blow to the party.