The significance of Sasikala’s return to Tamil Nadu politics

“My intention is that everyone must work in unity and not let the common enemy capture the throne,” Sasikala told reporters as she received a rousing reception all along her road trip from Bengaluru to Chennai.

READ: V K Sasikala returns to Tamil Nadu after four years; AIADMK says she has no link with the party

“The party has faced several struggles and risen like a phoenix in the past,” she said referring to the work of AIADMK founder MG Ramachandran and his successor Jayalalitha.

Through the symbolism and statement on her return, Sasikala has clearly sent the ball rolling for an interesting election season. Winning or losing is another matter, but that Sasikala is out there to disrupt political equations in Tamil Nadu cannot be denied, analysts say.

Sumanth Raman, a Chennai-based political commentator says that Sasikala intends to re-capture AIADMK which explains her symbolism in her road trip.

“She travelled in Jayalalithaa’s car, made several stops on her way to greet supporters. She said she will be in active politics. She is clearly out to re-capture AIADMK,” Raman told Moneycontrol.

After spending about three decades alongside Jayalalithaa, Sasikala has been in prison since February 2017 in Rs 66 crore graft case. She cannot contest elections or hold any position in political office for the next six years, but she is said to hold sway among the rank and file of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK).

Also, read: V K Sasikala released from prison after serving 4-year jail-term

Four years later, a united OPS and EPS

Soon after Jayalalithaa's death in December 2016, AIADMK suffered a split with O Panneerselvam, or OPS, now deputy chief minister, and EPS heading two factions. Later, the two factions merged and expelled Sasikala in September 2017 along with TTV Dhinakaran and others.

Sasikala floated the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) led by Dhinakaran. The party won the assembly by-election for the RK Nagar seat in Chennai and secured close to 6 percent of the vote in the 2019 general election.

Dhinakaran, who accompanied Sasikala on February 8, said that many functionaries of the ruling AIADMK turned up to welcome her. He said she continued to remain the AIADMK general secretary, pointing to petitions pending in court over her 'expulsion'.

"She is travelling in a car that belongs to the AIADMK functionary who came to welcome her. He is there in the car," TTV told a Tamil TV channel. In the evening, AIADMK expelled seven workers after it was found that she used a car from one of the workers.

The BJP factor

In January, EPS was in Delhi to invite Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the inauguration of the new Jayalalithaa memorial in Chennai. But, many say, the release of VK Sasikala was also discussed in the meeting.

AIADMK party is divided on her return, it seems. Many including state dairy development minister KT Rajenthra Bhalaji have expressed their willingness to let her in. Others including fisheries minister and AIADMK organisation secretary D Jayakumar assert that the party had taken a stand in 2017 that it wanted to run the government and the party independent of any interference by her.

In the general council meeting of AIADMK on January 9, EPS was announced to be the party's chief ministerial candidate for the upcoming elections. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), AIADMK’s ally, is yet to publicly endorse his candidature, though. The BJP, sources said, has been pushing its ally to let Sasikala in because it doesn’t want a split of votes that could benefit rival Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)

Sources said the BJP has been involved in backroom talks with TTV Dinakaran to forge an alliance.

Experts see many options for Sasikala in the coming months. One she will rejoin AIADMK by striking a deal with OPS and EPS. The other option would be AIADMK gets AMMK as an ally. Or AMMK leads the third front to defeat AIADMK in the election.

So can Sasikala’s political moves have an impact on Tamil Nadu elections? I have always been doubtful, says Raman.

“She has never contested an election. She has not even spoken once from a stage. I doubt that she will be able to lead AIADMK. I do not see any disintegration in AIADMK at least until elections,” he said.