The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which is in power in Delhi and Punjab, is one state election away from becoming a national party. With a high-decibel campaign in the ongoing Gujarat elections, the party is hopeful of getting enough votes to be recognised as a state party in a fourth state (Goa is the third), which will automatically qualify it to become a national party.
The feat, if achieved, will be a significant political milestone for the party which is less than a decade old. Apart from the privileges that come with being recognised as a national party, including having a uniform symbol across the country, it could also give a political boost to the AAP’s ambitions of a pan-India presence.
Gujarat is going to the polls in two phases, December 1 and 5. Votes will be counted on December 8 along with those for Himachal Pradesh, which voted on November 12. The AAP ran a comparatively low-key campaign in Himachal Pradesh and instead directed more of its energy to Gujarat, the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
In Gujarat, the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has been in power for nearly 27 years, is pitted against arch-rival Congress. The AAP is looking to turn the traditionally bipolar electoral contest into a three-way fight, projecting itself as an alternative to both the BJP and the Congress.
Eyeing national party status
The AAP is recognised as a state party in Delhi, Punjab and Goa. In the Goa assembly elections held in February, the AAP won two seats with a 6.77 percent vote share.
AAP chief and Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal shared a letter from the Election Commission (EC) in August, which mentioned its recognition as a state party in Goa. Kejriwal said that recognition in one more state would give the AAP national party status. The party is hoping its performance in Gujarat will earn it national party status.
“We are already the fastest-growing party in the history of the country. I have absolutely no doubt that we will get national party status through the 6 percent vote share (condition) in Gujarat,” Prithvi Reddy, AAP’s national spokesperson and Karnataka convenor, told Moneycontrol.
“We, however, look less at these milestones and concentrate more on the milestone of replicating the model that we have in Delhi — implementing it in Punjab, and (taking it) to other states. We are fighting to win so we can deliver for the public good,” he added.
What will it take?
The rules say that on the basis of assembly elections, any party can be recognised as a state party if it gets a 6 percent vote share with two assembly seats (as the AAP did in Goa), or if it wins 3 percent of the total assembly seats or three seats (whichever is more), or if it polls more than 8 percent of all votes.
Any party that gets recognised as a state party in four or more states automatically gets national party status. There are also conditions related to Lok Sabha election performance that can earn a party state or national party status but the next national election is due only in 2024.
There are eight national parties recognised by the Election Commission: BJP, Congress, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), Communist Party of India, Communist Party of India (Marxist), Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the latest entrant, National People’s Party (NPP).
Being a member of this elite club comes with its own set of privileges. For instance, these parties are entitled to exclusive allotment of a reserved symbol throughout the country and get a larger share of telecast facilities on national broadcasters.
AAP’s Gujarat stake
The AAP positions itself as an alternative to the two mainstream political parties. The stakes are high for the party in Gujarat because the BJP and Congress together garnered more than 90 percent vote share in the 2017 elections (49.05 percent and 41.44 percent, respectively), leaving very little room for other political parties.
“We have limited resources and we are picking our fights. If we don’t win, the process of growth takes longer but a win in Gujarat will put us into a new ballgame altogether. I think whether it is the BJP or Congress — they have a lot more to lose. AAP is here to stay and our fight will go on,” Reddy said.
The outcome of the Gujarat elections will also have a significant impact on the party’s national expansion plans, particularly with an eye on the Lok Sabha elections in 2024. Prior to that, at least half a dozen states will go to the polls, including Karnataka, where the AAP sees an electoral opportunity.
Experts feel that the Gujarat elections will be very significant to the AAP’s future political trajectory but add that it will take a lot more than its two incumbent states to deliver an impressive performance in the coastal state.
“Gujarat is very different from Delhi and Punjab. In the other two states, AAP was challenging an incumbent Congress but in Gujarat it is taking on the BJP, which has been in power for long. It currently does not have a strong organisational presence in the state,” Bhanu M Parmar, professor at the Department of Political Science, Nalini- Arvind & TV Patel Arts College, Anand, told Moneycontrol.
“The question in this election is who will benefit from the anti-incumbency votes? I think the AAP will benefit largely from those voters who have been traditionally against the BJP but now no longer want to vote for the Congress,” added Parmar, who is also associated with Lokniti Network, run by the Centre of Developing Societies (CSDS).
(Anuja is an independent journalist based in New Delhi, who writes at the intersection of policy and politics. She tweets at @just_anuja)
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