Goa Assembly Elections 2022: Will the pledges at shrines, affidavits stop defections?

Three Congress legislators resigned their seats, switched to the ruling BJP, re-contested elections, won and were rewarded with ministerial berths during the past term. Worse, ten legislators of the Congress and two legislators of the regional Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) crossed the floor of the house and switched sides, claiming they had merged with the BJP. The argument that this was under Anti-Defection law exemptions that permit two-thirds majority of a party to merge with another, was accepted by the Speaker but is under challenge before the Bombay High Court, which has not yet passed judgement in the case.

Public displeasure however was sharply expressed on social media platforms. And in the run up to yet another election, there was a palpable erosion of confidence, respect and engagement with the system, as citizens rued they were reduced to polling day citizens only, with little guarantee their mandate would be respected thereafter. 

Ironically, the Congress party that had been reduced by defections from the single largest party with 17 MLAs in 2017 to five by term-end---ended up taking the biggest hit. "We were the victims of defections, but all parties, including the BJP which was responsible for defections, and newer parties like the Trinamool Congress and Aam Aadmi Party blamed the Congress for defections and not holding onto its MLAs," Goa Pradesh Congress President Girish Chodankar told Moneycontrol. 

The AAP plank to voters was that a vote for the Congress was a defacto vote for the BJP, due to the potential of defections. Though the Congress stuck to its promise not to readmit a single defector back into the party, its candidates and ally Goa Forward Party, took pledges on January 22 before a temple, church and dargah, and also signed and affirmed pledges of loyalty before Congress leader Rahul Gandhi on 4 February. The AAP conducted a similar affidavit signing exercise before Arvind Kejriwal on February 2 and made it public. This was the first time an exercise of this sort was carried out anywhere in the country. 

Do pledges, affidavits help?

Do the pledges and affidavits have legal sanctity and would they prevent defections? According to lawyer and political analyst Cleofato Almeida Coutinho, neither the pledges nor the affidavits would really have enough legal consequences to act as a deterrent, if an individual legislator decides to defect. 

"They were used more as a confidence-building measure to convince voters who were angry and disillusioned with past defections." The provisions of the Anti Defection Law would apply, in that the single legislator would have to resign and seek re-election if they crossed sides. 

"Technically at best, a case for perjury could be made, because of the affidavits, but this has not been tested yet. Elected members are really governed by the Constitution of India and the provisions of the Representation of People's Act," former Union Law Minister Ramakant Khalap told Moneycontrol.

Read also: Ten fights to follow in Goa

Unless the law is amended, and decisions are taken out of the Speaker's hands, it is only voters and courts who can create an impediment to defections that are currently taking place due to inducements of money and positions of power, Khalap said. "This election will be the litmus test. Defections were placed at the centre stage of the discourse. Will voters defeat  those who crossed sides for inducements? That's to be seen on March 10,” said Almeida Coutinho. 

So far, only legislators who were very sure of their voter support base would resign and re-contest polls. "They recontest on the ruling-party ticket, which acts as an advantage in their favour," said Coutinho. 

Party-hoppers punished

Goa has witnessed defections through much of its legislative past, and there's some indication that party hoppers have generally been defeated by their electorate in the past. Senior journalist Ashley do Rosario, who has analysed data from 1990, says 80 percent of party hoppers from the MGP have tended to lose at the hustings, while 40 percent of defectors from Congress and similar offshoots, tend to lose at term end hustings. Most don't seem to worry about this, until a few months before polls, he says.

Will the pledges taken at religious shrines by the Congress and its Goa Forward Party ally have any bearing at all in a post poll scenario? Bhaskar Assoldekar, Goa state coordinator, Association for Democratic Reforms feels this depends on the individual --- some brazen it out, others not.  In many cases where legislators cross ideological barriers to a ruling side clearly disfavored by the constituency, the social and family backlash can be intense. Not all can take the heat in a small society like Goa and many thus singed learn their lesson, say analysts. 

In a deeply religious Goa, candidates who have reneged on religious pledges or pledges to voters, have had to face the heat of being pilloried on social media by vocal disaffected segments and a trust deficit in society. Others are able to ride out the censure with the perks of being on the ruling side.  A legislator who made a pledge before a Church altar in 2017 that he would not support the BJP, but went on to do so, attempted to make amends by supporting Church beautification projects.

"Elections are expensive to contest, and some see gravitating to power as a return on the investment of their backers, arguing that their supporters want them to join a ruling side. Since they are representatives of the people, there's no counter-argument to that, unless the approach of voters change and the voter becomes an activist to defend his vote." says Assoldekar.

Congress talks tough

This time around, the Congress party which was targeted, both by poaching from the ruling side and criticism from rival opposition parties, sought to escalate public anger against defections and party hopping --- as a strategy both to ensure its own survival and damage a BJP swollen with Congress imports. It sent a message to voters that it  had rebooted itself, created a new Congress, rid itself of perennial party hoppers, shut its doors on defectors even at the political risk for keeping out winnable candidates, and giving tickets to 31 new faces in its line-up for the 40 member assembly.

 "The people of Goa said they did not want defectors, so we accepted this with our hearts. We have not given tickets to a single defector,” said Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, during his campaign in  Goa.

After polling on February 14, both the Congress and BJP declared they would gain a majority number on their own. But with analysts predicting a hung assembly and a long gap before counting on March 10 --- the charged atmosphere has not gone without its politicking and lobbying. 

At a press conference on February 19, Congress President Girish Chodankar warned BJP leaders not to attempt to poach probable winnable candidates in an attempt to cobble a government and stay in power. Brokers are going around offering crores of rupees to probable winners to switch sides, he said, naming three leaders of the ruling party aspiring to be chief minister.

"This is a new Congress. Our candidates will not be bought. But if attempts are made, we will go to any extent to defend and protect the mandate of the people and to protect democracy," Chodankar said.