In November 2018, when Kerala was facing the political heat of the Sabarimala issue, the then state president of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) PS Sreedharan Pillai had stated the women entry issue at the Ayyappa temple as a “golden opportunity” for the party in Kerala.
Many political analysts believed that Lord Ayappa in Kerala may replicate what Lord Ram did for the BJP in the North, in terms of gaining political momentum. However, on May 2, 2021, when the incumbent chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan stormed back to power in Kerala, the BJP was left with not even a single seat.
Despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Amit Shah and other national leaders spearheading the campaign, the saffron party failed to even retain their existing seat, Nemom in Thiruvananthapuram district. The party had also elevated K Surendran, its face in Sabarimala protests, as the state president. Surendran had contested in two seats – Manjeswaram and Konni – with the candidate even using the extravaganza of using a helicopter to shuttle between the two constituencies. When the results were out, Surendran was seen as a distant third in Konni. The BJP had led a campaign against the Vijayan government’s move to enforce a Supreme Court judgement allowing the entry of women in the age group of 10-50 to the temple, built before the 12th century.
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With Surendran heading the saffron party, many believed that this election may well be the BJP’s electoral triumph in Kerala, where the party couldn’t mark its presence for decades, despite having one of the strongest bases of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). It has to be noted that the state is credited to have the highest number of 4,500 daily RSS shakhas in the country, more than Modi’s Gujarat or the BJP stronghold Uttar Pradesh.
“The BJP failed to capitalise on the Sabarimala issue. I believe that the major reason behind this was the left-liberal mindset of the state of Kerala. In addition to this, Kerala being the land of Narayana Guru and Chattampi Swamikal, traditionally, believed in the social renaissance. Hence, despite having the largest number of Shakhas, the BJP could not convert that to votes,” said Sunnykutty Abraham, a senior political analyst in Kerala. The entry of metro man Elattuvalapil Sreedharan into the political arena also could not help the BJP in gaining a seat, as Sreedharan managed to finish only second.
Political analysts also believe that the statements by the BJP leaders, including Surendran, that the party needs only 35 to 40 seats to form a government, hinting at backdoor political games, has backfired in a state like Kerala. Based on initial analysis, the consolidation of minority votes – 27 percent Muslim votes and 18 percent Christian votes – in favour of the Left parties and the political image of Pinarayi Vijayan may have resulted in the dismal performance of the UDF and also the NDA.
Also read: Pinarayi Vijayan: How Kerala's crisis manager won electoral hearts
Kerala also has a 55 percent Hindu population, with around 21 percent of the Ezhava votes and 12 percent Nair votes. The BJP was betting big on its ally, the Bharat Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS), floated by Vellapally Nateshan of the Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam (a body of Ezhavas), in raising its number of seats in Kerala. Though the tie-up with BDJS helped the NDA in raising its vote share from a mere 6.1 per cent in 2011 to 15.3 per cent and one seat in the assembly elections in 2016, it could not even hold on to the existing seat in 2021. The current results indicate that despite a tie-up with the BDJS, a large number of Ezhava vote remained with the Left parties.
In the local body elections held in December 2020, BJP managed to win 1,182-gram panchayat, 37 block panchayat, two district panchayat, 320 municipality and 59 corporation wards. “Even in 1991, the BJP had lost seats like Manjeswaram for less than 1,000 votes. It seems to be the stronger communist roots that are keeping the BJP away from electoral wins in Kerala,” Abraham added. Issues like factionalism within the state BJP also came as a reason for its electoral loss.
With final vote share details yet to be out, a clean slate for the BJP in terms of the number of seats indicate that it failed to capitalise on the golden opportunity, the Sabarimala issue.
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