BJP caught in tangle of its own making: Prabhu Chawla

New Indian Express editorial director Prabhu Chawla explains to CNBC-TV18, in an analysis of the current political situation, that the BJP is now in a fix to extricate its image which has taken a beating as the party’s efforts to bring Parliament to a halt failed to force the Prime Minister to hand in his resignation.

Below is an edited transcript of the analysis on CNBC-TV18. Q: Four ministers have spoken to the press complaining that Parliament has not been allowed to function in a move to take the issue to the people. Do you think the BJP will respond by allowing Parliament to function at all?
A: I don’t think the BJP has an escape out of this mess that it has created for itself. The BJP seeks nothing less than the resignation of the Prime Minister. So the party has to find some kind of honourable exit out of this impasse so that Parliament can begin to function.
I don’t expect any business to be transacted during this Parliament session. Today is almost gone. There will be little business transacted next week as well, with the Onam festival which begins on Thursday.
The BJP has decided to carry out its plans amidst the festive season when it is easy to disrupt the house for a couple of days. Though the BJP leadership's demand call for resignation of the Prime Minister will not be met, finding an honourable escape from this impasse has turned out to be more difficult than expected.
The BJP never expected that it would have to withdraw its demand as the entire strategy was aimed at capturing the public attention alone. The party is raising enough furore to remain at the forefront of public attention with regards to the elections in 2014. The party is a fighting a battle on the street is least concerned about the House where it is a minority. Q: Do you think in the political debate on coal allocation, is the UPA is beginning to gain the upper hand?
A: At the moment, the fight is for perception not for performance. With the numerous scams during the past one-and-a-half-years, the image of the government has suffered a lot.
The BJP is trying to score on that erosion of image of the UPA government and is not fighting with facts. And in this fight for perception, government is losing ground. With intelligent and effective ministers like P Chidambaram the government may have some points to score.
But on the street, a political fight is  more about perception than reality. The BJP has projected an image to the public that the present government is one of the most corrupt and is headed by a very honest Prime Minister. But when news of the coal scam was unearthed, the Prime Minister held charge of the coal ministry.
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It is not possible to assess whether the BJP or the UPA has the upper hand because there is no debate. A debate might reveal facts which allows for accurate assessment.
The key question is about the perception of the government. And the UPA is losing the battle for public perception. Q: What do you think will be the end-game? Do you think mid-term polls are possible?
A: All political parties fight to win elections. And the BJP is also expecting to win the coming elections. The BJP thinks it can increase the tally from the current 116 to 150-180 and the Congress feels that from 206 seats, a fall may leave it with 150 seats. But all this is a matter of perception.
It is not possible to anticipate what will happen in the elections but if you go by what has happened over the past six years, the Congress has been losing a majority of elections. If that trend continues, then the Congress is likely to suffer and that is what the BJP is betting on.
But the BJP may not be as united with its leaders quarrelling with each other. But the party wants to ride the anti-Congress perception which is strong across the country. The BJP does not have the majority because no national party will get a majority in the next elections. The government will be formed by a national party with support from regional parties.