What does 2022 have in store for the South of India, politically? High-octane political activity will dominate Karnataka and Telangana as they gear up for elections in 2023, while the other three major southern states won’t see much, barring the efforts of regional satraps to consolidate their positions.
Here’s a look at how it would play out:
Karnataka may have a fifth CM in current Assembly’s term
The buzz in Karnataka is that incumbent Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai may be replaced. Bommai had succeeded Karnataka BJP patriarch B S Yeddyurappa who was shown the door this July citing his old age. Bommai nearly admitted a few days ago that his survival in the post was hanging in the balance when he said ‘nothing is permanent in this world.’
The BJP must factor in how the disgruntled Yeddyurappa, behind whom the dominant Lingayat community rallies, would react. If Bommai is shown the door, the party would be open to the charge that it is no different than the Congress in replacing chief ministers often. If Bommai is eased out, Karnataka will see a fifth chief minister in the current term of the Assembly. (Yeddyurappa was chief minister twice in this assembly’s term).
This isn’t good news for the BJP. However, the BJP seems to be seriously mulling the idea of having a new chief minister to lead the party in the upcoming elections for talukas, zilla panchayats, the Bruhat Bengaluru Mahanagara Palike, and, the 2023 Assembly elections.
The D K Shivakumar-led Congress is the main challenger to the BJP as the latter tries to fight brewing anti-incumbency. But even Congress leaders are not sure of the party staging a comeback.
For one, former chief minister Siddaramaiah wouldn’t concede leadership to his junior and works in silos. Ditto with leader of the opposition in the Lok Sabha Mallikarjuna Kharge.
Second, the central leadership of the Congress doesn’t even remotely show any signs of challenging the incumbent Union government or show the ability to stitch a cohesive coalition of other parties and lead them from the front.
The Janata Dal (Secular) led by H D Kumaraswamy, although it has a strong presence in south Karnataka, may have to be satisfied playing the role of a king maker.
KCR eying a third term
In Telangana, incumbent chief minister and Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) supremo K Chandrashekar Rao (KCR) is far ahead of rivals in the run-up to the 2023 assembly elections. He has meticulously been projecting the BJP as his main rival, deliberately ignoring the Congress, the main opposition in the State. The BJP and the Congress are not headed by leaders with the stature of being projected as chief ministerial nominees.
Will KCR make history?
No chief minister in Telugu politics has won a third term in a row — only the Telugu Desam under NT Rama Rao won three elections, but not in a row.
KCR is mincing no words while taking on the BJP head on. The saffron party sprang a surprise by winning two of the four assembly seats that went to bye-elections after the 2018 elections. It also won 47 corporator seats compared to the TRS’ 56 seats in the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) elections last year.
How the BJP performs in a larger poll arena across the state remains to be seen. It is a tough task.
TRS has achieved a balance between development and welfare very effectively in the last seven and a half years, while successfully transforming itself from leading a movement to running an administration.
The Congress, which is showing the signs of recovery under the leadership of state committee president A Revanth Reddy, however, appears to be barking more than biting. Though Revanth Reddy is trying to carry even dissident leaders along, the party is haunted by the popular sentiment that its inability to gain power at the Centre will obviate its chances of coming to power in Telangana.
Politics of vendetta haunts Andhra
Andhra Pradesh chief minister YS Jaganmohan Reddy's focus on welfare schemes at the cost of development, has apparently insured his second term. The next assembly elections in the state are in 2024, but 2022 will likely see heightened political bitterness as the ruling party spares no efforts to embarrass its main political rival, TDP.
Jagan Reddy, who has rolled back previous decisions such as the Acts which envisaged three capitals to the state and the resolution to dissolve the State Legislative Council, will also face more attacks from the opposition.
However, the TDP’s weakening leadership and the party’s eroding base will come back to bite it. TDP’s frequent invocation of the legal option on issues of governance seems to be damaging it more than doing any good. The BJP is still unable to wriggle itself out of the image of a ‘sellout’, a smudge it had attracted several decades ago in the State.
Actor-turned politician Pawan Kalyan continues to showcase himself as an inconsistent and self-contradictory personality. His party, Janasena, is seen only as the one playing second fiddle to either the TDP, or the BJP or at times the Communists. The Congress and the Communists have lost relevance in the State.
Stalin, not a dictator
Tamil Nadu chief minister and DMK supremo M K Stalin who came to power earlier this year is focusing on the communication to highlight his governance and leadership.
The chief minister doesn’t foresee any political threat from either former CM E Palanisamy or his colleague O Panneerselvam. The personality cult in Tamil Nadu politics is working to the advantage of Stalin, who demonstrated enormous perseverance and patience for several decades to become the chief minister.
What’s of interest is the moves he makes in preparation for the 2024 polls. Will he align with the BJP at the centre citing the needs of the state, or will he go along with KCR, who is toying with the idea of a national alternative to the BJP?
Calm ride by comrade
The communists have lost political relevance in almost the whole of India. The only exception perhaps is Kerala, where Pinarayi Vijayan became the first chief minister to have won a second consecutive term in the recent past. But that be owing to the personality politics centred on Vijayan.
The Oomen Chandys and Ramesh Chennitalas of the Congress do not have any succession plan, leaving Vijayan to have a smooth ride in the State in the coming year. Though the BJP is not finding its politics making any headway in the State, it will continue to rake up contentious issues, using the religion card.
A Saye Sekhar is senior journalist.
Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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