Prime Minister Narendra Modi has completed nine years in office this month. With one year to go for general elections 2024, discussions on whether he still enjoys the confidence of the voters have begun. Is anti-incumbency, which is natural to develop for such a long tenure in government, creeping in?
The debate has gathered momentum especially after the Karnataka elections, where Modi despite carrying the BJP’s campaign on his shoulders was not able to save the party from a disastrous defeat. The opposition jumping the gun has claimed that the results are an indication of waning popularity of Modi.
Modi By A Distance
CSDS has conducted a detailed poll on nine years of Modi. 43 percent respondents said they wanted to see Modi as their PM if elections were to be held today. This is a marginal drop of 1 percent compared to the 2019 elections. He enjoys a lead of 16 percent versus Rahul Gandhi, who has improved his position from 23 percent to 27 percent.
In increasingly presidential style elections for Lok Sabha, popularity ratings are very important as they approximately represent the vote share/support enjoyed by parties.
The survey points out that the Modi magic still holds good despite 9 years in power. 55 percent of respondents are fully or somewhat satisfied with the central government’s work. The survey throws fascinating insights on why people like PM Modi.
The highest 25 percent like Modi for his oratory skills, highlighting the importance of communication in leadership. This is where he beats Rahul hands down as he is able to establish a direct heart to heart connection with the voters.
Different facets of his personality – good oratory, development orientation, hard work, individual charisma, policies and programmes – appeal to different segments of voters adding to his aura and invincibility.
An overwhelming 63 percent of people believe that the country's global stature grew under PM Modi, with 54 percent agreeing with the notion that India is now a world leader. At least 47 percent of the respondents of the survey rated the Modi government's development work "high". This indicates his urban/middle class support is largely unscathed.
It’s The Economy, Stupid
Seventy percent of respondents name unemployment, poverty and price rise as the top three issues facing the country today. 57 percent and 46 percent respondents respectively rate the government’s handling of inflation and farmer’s issues as bad.
The highest 42 percent cite that their economic condition has remained the same in the past four years, probably a COVID effect. A clear rural-urban divide is visible here with 23 percent respondents in rural areas saying their economic condition has deteriorated versus 18 percent in urban areas.
Consequently more than half of the respondents support free electricity and water for the poor, pointing towards economic stress. This is what has led to the success of AAP and Congress in recent state elections.
While 38 percent respondents believe development has benefited everyone, 36 percent believe it has only benefited the wealthy. This is the India versus Bharat phenomenon for which Modi needs to beware.
Rahul, The Sole Challenger
Bharat Jodo Yatra has clearly benefited Rahul Gandhi in establishing a connection with the masses, with 15 percent respondents saying they like him after the Yatra.
He has clearly emerged as the main contender against PM Modi with highest 34 percent support, three times his nearest rival Arvind Kejriwal. He has also closed the gap with Modi to 16 percent versus 20 percent in 2019.
Congress Gaining, Regional Parties Losing?
In terms of vote share, BJP is expected to get 39 percent (+2 percent) and Congress 29 percent (+10 percent) if elections were held today, mirroring the ratings of their leaders Modi and Rahul respectively.
Congress is gaining at the expense of Others (regional parties) which are projected to get 28 percent vote share. This will be an all time low if it happens, previous low being 43.1 percent during 2019 elections.
If true, this is indicative of increasing bipolarity in elections at national level, after states are throwing a similar pattern. Historical vote share average for regional parties has been 49 percent and Congress plus BJP combined 51 percent for elections held between 1952-2019.
2024: Not Open-And-Shut Yet?
Forty-three percent respondents said that the BJP led NDA should be given another chance to form the government vis-a-vis 38 percent which said no. This is a cause of worry for the BJP.
The narrative of BJP as well as Congress for 2024 hasn’t been firmed up yet. While PM is popular, can the TINA factor help BJP sail through? Picture abhi baaki hai…
Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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