Sumanth Raman
In the end things did not go quite according to the script for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and for the Congress it was a tale of what might have been. The results of the assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana were widely expected to be a foregone conclusion, with the ruling BJP expected to sweep both states. The exit poll projections (with one notable exception) all pointed in this direction. The Indian voter showed yet again that she cannot be written off or taken for granted.
While the electorate expressed its annoyance with the saffron party, it still gave it five more years in Maharashtra giving the BJP-Shiv Sena combine a small majority. In Haryana though, it was harsher depriving the BJP of a majority though it is very likely to still form the government.
For the Congress the story could have been so different. Congress leaders, in their wildest dreams, would not have expected the resurgence the party saw in Haryana and the fight that the Nationalist Congress Party-Congress combine put up in Maharashtra. For a party in complete disarray and one which does not even know who its leader is going be, the results have come as a lifeline. It was the party’s much-reviled old guard that delivered yet again. Bhupinder Singh Hooda, who was parachuted into Haryana to lead the campaign barely 40 days before the polls, almost pulled off a miracle for the Congress leaving one to wonder what the result may have been had they sorted out the problems with Ashok Tanwar earlier and given Hooda a free hand in the run up to the polls.
In Maharashtra, it was the NCP that stole the thunder from the Congress winning almost a dozen seats more than the grand old party. With NCP chief Sharad Pawar pulling out all stops in a last minute push during the campaign the NCP dented the BJP-Sena particularly in Vidharba and Western Maharashtra. The combine reaching the 100 mark must have given some satisfaction to the Congress and the NCP though it was cold comfort for having to sit in the Opposition for five more years.
If only the Congress had mounted a more vigorous campaign in Maharashtra where it seemed to have thrown in the towel early, if only they had projected a state leader to take on Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, if only they had got all their big guns to address more rallies, if only....the list is long. In the end it was a case of so near yet so far and another ‘moral victory’ to add to their list much like they described their performance in the last assembly elections in Gujarat.
For the cadre though, the results would have given them heart that all is not lost. That the BJP under Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP President and Union minister Amit Shah can be beaten may have been established by the assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, but after the Lok Sabha election debacle the Congress needed plenty of reinforcing.
With a good performance in the assembly bypolls in Punjab (3 out of 4),Gujarat (3 out of 6), Kerala (3 out of 5 for the UDF), Rajasthan (1 out of 2), Madhya Pradesh (1 out of 1), Chhattisgarh (1 out of 1) and Puducherry (1 out of 1), a Congress-mukht Bharat looks as unlikely as ever — though the road ahead is still rough and rocky.
The Congress needs to sort out its national leadership issue at the earliest. The longer this is dragged out, the more it will harm the party. Rahul Gandhi is still the leading face of the party though he is no longer the party President. This is hardly an ideal situation.
In the absence of a powerful national leader, the Congress also needs to look at creating and empowering state leaders who can deliver victories in their fiefdoms. The examples of the late YSR Reddy in Andhra Pradesh, Captain Amrinder Singh in Punjab, Tarun Gogoi until a few years ago in Assam and the late Sheila Dikshit in Delhi were examples of what strong regional satraps can do for the party in their states. Not only did they win the states for the Congress but they also ensured a sizable number of MP’s for the party. Right now the Congress could do with at least three or four such leaders. Barring the good Captain, at the moment, they have none.
As the results of the polls came in, Anand Sharma, senior Congress leader, addressed a press conference. He spent almost the entire time speaking about what lessons the verdict had for the BJP and how the electorate had taught the BJP a lesson. There was hardly anything from him on what lessons there were for the Congress. In many ways this presser seemed to sum up the Congress’ problem. It seems happy with such ‘moral victories’. The hunger and the appetite for a fight is still missing.
Sumanth Raman is a Chennai-based television anchor and political analyst. Views are personal.
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