Ahead of opposition parties convening in Shimla for their second round of confabulations, the Congress faces a raft of challenges as the “Big Brother” of the bloc. The first and foremost task for the grand old party is to keep the flock together, riddled as it is with contradictions, and ensure one-to-one contests in most of the total 543 Lok Sabha seats.
Within hours of the Patna meeting on June 23, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Congress were at each other's throats over the Centre's ordinance on Delhi. And days later, West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee accused the Congress and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) of playing second fiddle to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in her state.
These developments brought to fore the challenges the grouping will face while preparing a roadmap for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections to oust Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP from power.
Heeding Congress’s Dislikes
Apart from West Bengal, the Congress is fighting other opposition parties in Kerala, Punjab, Delhi, Telangana, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Strategically, Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar deliberately did not invite Bharat Rashtra Samithi, Biju Janata Dal and YSR Congress Party, the ruling parties in Telangana, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh respectively, to keep the Congress in a good humour and make his conclave a success.
These parties don't want the Congress to lead the opposition front and together account for 63 Lok Sabha seats with 25 in Andhra Pradesh, 21 in Odisha and 17 in Telangana. 63 is a good number as each seat counts, especially when the BJP is reportedly preparing a constituency-wise strategy for all the 543 seats.
However, the opposition is hoping that these three parties too will eventually join its ranks given the threat BJP poses to them. Similarly, a tussle between the AAP and the Congress may impact the outcome in 21 seats (13 in Punjab, 7 in Delhi and one Chandigarh). The Trinamool Congress’ rift with the Congress and the CPI(M) could jeopardise the unity efforts on 42 seats in West Bengal.
Accommodation & Contestation
At the Patna meeting, Banerjee had insisted that the opposition parties should sink their differences and ensure no vote goes to the BJP. Similarly, Rahul Gandhi had asserted that the Congress would do anything to keep the opposition parties together. He talked of having a clean slate without any memory of likes and dislikes for any party.
Both Banerjee and Rahul Gandhi need to walk the talk though the onus of keeping the bloc united is mainly on the Congress as it is the principal opposition party with pan-India presence. The Congress needs to show magnanimity and reach out to other opposition parties.
But the main contentious issue that the opposition will have to confront is to evolve a consensus on its prime ministerial candidate as there are many potential contenders such as Rahul Gandhi, Nitish Kumar, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge, Nationalist Congress Party chief Sharad Pawar and former Maharashtra chief minister Uddhav Thackeray.
The Patna meeting avoided a discussion on the issue but sooner or later the opposition will have to offer clarity to voters on the much-debated topic of “Modi versus Who”? Delaying the answer might prove counterproductive though the opposition often cites the example of 2004 when it was “Atal Bihari Vajpayee versus The Rest”.
One-Seat One-Candidate
As far as seat sharing is concerned, the Congress is unlikely to face any serious problems in states where it is already in alliance such as Maharashtra (48), Bihar (40), Tamil Nadu (39) and Jharkhand (14). These add up to a total of 141 Lok Sabha seats. But the arduous task for it would be to bring on board those regional parties that are its rivals and for that the Congress must have separate strategies for states and the Lok Sabha.
For its part, the Congress would not like any disturbance in states such as Madhya Pradesh (29 seats), Karnataka (28), Gujarat (26), Rajasthan (25), Chhattisgarh (11), Haryana (10), Uttarakhand (5), Himachal Pradesh (4) and Goa (2) - 140 seats in total -- where it is in direct contest with the BJP.
While the Congress is fighting the CPI(M) in Kerala (20 seats), it will have to give space to dominating partners in Uttar Pradesh (80), Assam (14), northeastern states (11) and union territories (19).
According to former Jammu and Kashmir chief minister Omar Abdullah, it would be good for the opposition if there is a one-to-one contest on 450 of the total 543 seats.
To achieve that objective, the Congress has a bigger responsibility though it has till now been the biggest stumbling block in the opposition unity project with its big brother attitude playing a spoiler on many occasions in the past.
Aurangzeb Naqshbandi is a senior journalist who has been covering the Congress for 15 years, and is currently associated with Pixstory. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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