Viju Cherian
Tuesday, February 26, was an action packed day in the Indian subcontinent. One event with two narratives increased tensions in the region and demanded international attention. India has said that it successfully destroyed Jaish-e-Mohammed’s (JeM’s) terror camps in Balakot in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Pakistan has claimed that it has averted an attack on its soil. Irrespective of Islamabad’s version, it’s clear that India has not only exposed gaping holes in Pakistan’s defence preparedness but by using Indian Air Force jets India has called Pakistan’s bluff.
The attack has been welcomed across India and with general elections around the corner, it will be interesting to see how political parties portray this attack.
India has said that 12 IAF Mirage 2000 jets flew into Pakistani airspace and dropped a payload of 1,000 kilograms on terror camps used by terrorist mastermind Masood Azhar’s JeM — JeM claimed responsibility for the February 14 Pulwama attack that killed more than 40 CRPF jawans. While Vijay Gokhale, India’s foreign secretary, said that “a very large number of JeM terrorists, trainers, senior commanders and groups of jihadis who were being trained for fidayeen action were eliminated”, some media reports have put the casualty figure between 200 and 300.
As expected, Pakistan rubbished India’s claims and said that there are zero casualties. Nevertheless, Pakistan claimed that it was an act of aggression and that a befitting reply would be given at a time and place of its choosing. It said that, “it is your (India’s) turn now to wait and get ready for our surprise.”
Narrative and sentiment
Hours after the attack, multiple reports of ceasefire violations, heavy shelling and firing along the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir have been reported. Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan said that Pakistan would definitely respond to India’s action.
The present challenge for both sides will be to control emotions and to make sure that events do not escalate from here.
In a way, the narrative on both sides of the border suit the respective governments. In India, the Balakot attack is seen as the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government living up to the promise of avenging the Pulwama attack. In Pakistan, by playing it down, the Imran Khan-led Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government has dodged, albeit for now, the demand for retaliation.
Tough call for Imran Khan
If the military establishment, which has traditionally dictated Pakistan’s India policy, has its way, Khan will have a tough choice to make — knowing well enough that it could lead to further losses and even derail his political career. However, it will be tough for Khan to not retaliate, especially since he will have to cater to popular sentiment that brought him to power. If Islamabad continues to pretend that nothing happened, spin doctors in Pakistan will have to work overtime to paint the Khan government emerging from this round as victors.
Modi’s promise and clear message
A day after the drastic Pulwama attack, at a political rally Modi had said that those responsible for the attack would pay “a very heavy price”. Ever since the attack, there has also been popular and near unanimous demand that the deaths of the jawans be avenged. With the Balakot attack these sentiments have more or less been assuaged.
With the Balakot attack India has crossed the diplomatic territorial grey area in Kashmir and struck well within Pakistan. The flight path of the IAF and the extent of damage caused is not yet clear but what is clear is that the Modi government has redrawn the red line — it has showed Pakistan that India has to stomach to push back and retaliate while staying well within the threshold of a limited attack. By terming it a “non-military pre-emptive action” aimed at terror infrastructure, New Delhi has limited Islamabad’s options for retaliation. India has sent out a clear message that it will no longer tolerate Pakistan’s terror double game.
Advantage BJP
There is little doubt that the Balakot attack has given the BJP a definitive advantage over its political rivals. Political parties are yet to use this attack across the electoral landscape in India, but if one were to go by how the Pulwama attack was politicised, it’s only a matter of time before this one too went that way.
The Balakot attack has showed that Modi has walked the talk when it comes to national security. The Indian Air Force deserves praise for the operation, but, at the same time the political will, and thereby the risk, showed by the Modi government also deserves kudos. The BJP is expected to cite this operation as an achievement and opposition parties will find it hard to blunt this claim. At a certain level this, along with the recently inaugurated National War Memorial in Delhi, could even obfuscate Congress President Rahul Gandhi’s Rafale accusations against Modi.
For Right-wing groups, this gives an extra edge to Pakistan-bashing (which for many is interchangeable with Muslim-bashing), which is expected to aid the BJP at the hustings.
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