Amar Devulapalli
On December 11, we will know which party forms the government in each of the five states heading for polls. More importantly, on December 11, the results will decide the fate of the anti-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) front.
In the 119-member Telangana assembly, the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) is contesting alone, with an understanding with the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM). Their main opponent is the grand alliance comprising of the Congress, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), the Communist Party of India (CPI) and the Telangana Jana Samithi (TJS), a new party floated by activist M Kodandram.
Earlier this year, TRS chief and caretaker Chief Minister of Telangana K Chandrashekar Rao (KCR) was the first to pitch the idea of a third force, an alternative to the Congress and the BJP at the Centre. It was followed by KCR touring the country seeking the support of representatives of major political parties, including Trinamool Congress (TMC) leader and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and JD(S) President and Karnataka Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy. However, the initiative lost steam faster than one expected as KCR cozied up to the BJP.
When the Telangana Cabinet was dissolved on September 6 and the names of 105 candidates were announced on the same day, the TRS had a first-mover advantage over other political parties. The Opposition, mainly the Congress, appeared unprepared for early elections. Since then, political developments in Telangana have been at breakneck speed.
Though there are four other states — Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Mizoram — going to polls, the elections in Telangana are being keenly observed especially after Telugu Desam Party (TDP) chief and Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu fast-tracked his efforts to form an anti-BJP front.
Even as the Congress' and the TDP's state-level leaders were negotiating the terms and conditions of an anti-TRS coalition in Telangana, Naidu flew to Delhi and met Congress President Rahul Gandhi. In a span of two weeks, Naidu met Aam Aadmi Party leader and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, Nationalist Congress Party chief Sharad Pawar, National Conference leader Farooq Abdullah, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam leader MK Stalin, and Communist Party of India (Marxist) leader Sitaram Yechury, among others.
The Congress-TDP coalition in Telangana — it is the first time the two parties are joining hands — is being keenly watched as the precipitator for a grand alliance at the Centre for the 2019 general elections. It’s another thing that Congress leaders in Telangana are struggling to douse dissidence within the party and at the same time, convince allies on an amicable seat-sharing formula.
On November 14, the TJS announced that it would contest 12 seats, thereby widening the rift in the anti-TRS coalition. In some of these seats, the TDP and the Congress had already announced their candidates. The TJS' latest move has created more confusion among voters and party cadre. The CPI leaders are unhappy as only three seats have been allotted to them, but they accepted the offer after they were assured of more MLC posts.
Naidu has asked TDP leaders in Telangana to lie low and not insist on more seats in order to ensure that the opposition is united in the state. If the grand alliance trounces the TRS, it will be a big boost for the anti-BJP front. The victory will strengthen the position of Naidu, who may try to rope in Banerjee, Samajwadi Party’s Akhilesh Yadav, Bahujan Samaj Party’s Mayawati and others for the 2019 general elections.
The BJP is wary of what is happening in Telangana and is treading cautiously. If the grand alliance is successful, the model can be replicated at the Centre. This will adversely affect the BJP and the image of Prime Minister Narendra Modi as the most powerful contender in 2019.
It’s no secret that the BJP in Telangana is not putting up an aggressive battle and is focusing on the handful of seats it has at the moment. There is also no news of when Modi or Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath will campaign in Telangana. For now, it seems that the BJP does not want to hamper the TRS' prospects.
For the BJP, a TRS win will also give it an option to explore an open tie-up for 2019. Most importantly, if the TRS wins in Telangana, it will discredit the grand alliance. The results in Telangana will set the tone for the Opposition for 2019.
(Amar Devulapalli is a Hyderabad-based senior journalist. Views are personal)
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