Amar Devulapalli
On November 28, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu tested the waters in Telangana on the eve of Assembly elections. This was his first attempt at winning the hearts of people in the newest state of country. His political gamble to make a foray in Telangana was also aimed at strengthening his party after the erstwhile state of Andhra Pradesh was bifurcated in 2014.
He shared the stage with Congress President Rahul Gandhi and other senior leaders of the People’s Front. Khammam district shares its borders with Andhra Pradesh, because of which a large number of voters in this town and adjoining areas trace their roots to the coastal state. This is one of the reasons why Chandrababu chose Khammam to start his campaign in Telangana since regional sentiment is not high.
On the same day, he participated in a road show in Ameerpet in Hyderabad, a borough with a sizeable population of migrants from Andhra Pradesh. Naidu's campaign culminated in Kodad, a town adjoining Krishna district in Andhra Pradesh.
Candidates supported by Naidu's Telugu Desam Party (TDP) lost all the above three constituencies when results were announced on December 11. In most places where Naidu campaigned in Hyderabad and surrounding areas, the Congress and other candidates of the People’s Front lost badly. The TDP's lacklustre performance in Telangana will give a strong jolt to Naidu's aspirations of emerging as a key player in New Delhi.
The Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) won 87 seats out of the 119 to retain power. Congress won 19, while the TDP had to settle for just two seats. In three other states - Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chattisgarh - that went to polls around the same time, the Congress emerged victorious, managing to secure a majority in all three.
The reasons for the People’s Front inability to make a mark in Telangana are many, but it is inevitable that fingers will be pointed at Naidu. It was Naidu who extended an olive branch to the Congress. He proactively designed the poll strategy in Telangana in tandem with Congress functionaries. Though some leaders of the Front were averse to the alliance, he went ahead with the campaign in Telangana. To some extent, he has to take the blame.
The TDP's performance in Telangana will dampen Naidu's national ambitions, as the Assembly polls were seen as a stepping stone in his march to New Delhi. Had the result been in favour of the People’ Front, he would have taken credit for the partnership. This would have boosted his image and expedited his efforts at stitching up an anti-Modi front for 2019 general elections. This electoral setback could hurt his campaign for reelection in his home state, where elections are due in six months.
The situation is not favourable for Naidu in Andhra Pradesh as, unlike Telangana, there is a strong opposition leader, Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy, who heads the YSRC Congress Party. Reddy embarked on a padayatra last year to ingratiate himself to the masses. If tremendous crowds at Jagan’s meetings are a concern for Naidu, then so is the prevailing anti-incumbency wave.
Naidu would have leveraged the Front’s win in Telangana to create a positive mood in Andhra Pradesh to take the Congress-TDP alliance forward. However, he will have to alter his plans, given that the people of Andhra Pradesh arguably harbour resentment towards the Congress, which is seen as responsible for the state's bifurcation.
The experiment has failed the litmus test of public opinion in Telangana. The question that will be asked loudly by TDP supporters as well as Congress partymen is whether the alliance is mutually beneficial. Naidu has to immediately control the damage, lest voters in Andhra Pradesh form the impression that his electoral fortunes are on the decline.
In his home state, Naidu's TDP is pitted against YSRCP, actor Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena Party (JSP), and the BJP. Many view the TDP's alliance with the Congress in Telangana as opportunistic as he was a part of the NDA until recently, exiting the formation over Centre's refusal to grant special category status to Andhra Pradesh.
Chandrababu Naidu's political future is now shrouded in doubt, with the TRS sounding a warning that it could retaliate in kind by contesting Assembly elections in Andhra Pradesh next year.
(Amar Devulapalli is a Hyderabad-based senior journalist. Views are personal)
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